Record wise, the Yankees had a strong first half to the season, but can they keep it up without answering some very important questions? I will take a look at some of the most burning issues below.
1. Where is the offense going to come from?The Yankees somehow managed a 51-44 record despite scoring 58 less runs than the next lowest team in the American League East. Other than Robinson Cano (.917 OPS/4.4 OWAR) and Brett Gardner (.761 OPS/2.3 OWAR), the offense has been mediocre, at best. Ichiro Suzuki is currently third on the team in OWAR (1.0), which should tell you more than you need to know about the state of the offense.
The Yankees do have a few injured veterans making their way back for the second half. Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, and Francisco Cervelli should all make their way back at some point in the second half to give the team a boost. The problem is that none of these players have played much at all in 2013. Jeter, Granderson, and Rodriguez all missed spring training and are relying on 20-day rehab stints to get themselves in game shape.
The farm system doesn't offer much if you are looking for an immediate impact. The Yankees catching position has been especially bad this season, and JR Murphy could potentially make an impact. Beyond him, none of their prospects are ready to contribute now.
2. Can Phil Hughes bring anything back in a trade?
Hughes has been quite an enigma in his major league career. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but hasn't shown the consistency needed to be a top flight major league pitcher. That said, he is still young (27), and has enjoyed some success in the major leagues. Contenders are always looking for pitching, and Hughes represents the type of talent that could put a team over the top. The National League West is a wide open division, and the Arizona Diamondbacks can use some pitching help. The Colorado Rockies have also been linked to Hughes, but his tendency to give up fly balls would not make him a great match there.
There are a few things that hinder the Yankees in their efforts to deal Hughes. Firstly, he is a free agent at the end of the season, which makes him strictly a rental for whatever team wants to trade for him. Secondly, the Yankees are still in a race, which likely means they are not going to be willing to trade him to another contender within the American League. For example, a team like the Baltimore Orioles can certainly use a pitching boost, but there is no way right now that the Yankees will send Hughes their way.
The Yankees need to be careful not to accept a rental in exchange for Hughes. They have to reach for the stars and look for a potential impact player they can keep under team control for years to come. Teams desperate to make it to the playoffs may just be willing to give up such a piece, but it will require patience.
3. Can the pitching hold up and be as strong as it was in the first half?
The Yankees pitched very well in the first half. Hiroki Kuroda ended the first half second in the American League in ERA (2.65) as he established himself as the team ace. CC Sabathia isn't pitching at his usual high level, but has provided 137 innings (second in the American League) while compiling the 25th best ERA (4.07). Andy Pettitte and Hughes have both been inconsistent, with Pettitte ending the first half on a sour note after a strong beginning to the season. (He pitched to a 3.83 ERA in April/May and a 4.96 ERA in June/July). The fifth spot has been shared by David Phelps and Ivan Nova. Upon getting called back up from the minors, Nova has been quite good, but his history of inconsistency leads to some hesitation. Phelps has been undone by a few bad starts (one vs. the Mets, the other vs. the Orioles), and ended the first half on the disabled list.
The real strength of the pitching staff has been in the bullpen, lead by Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Shawn Kelley and Boone Logan with solid contributions from rookies Preston Claiborne and Adam Warren. The biggest black hole in the bullpen has been Joba Chamberlain (5.40 ERA in 23.1 innings), but as a whole, the bullpen has been very good since the Yankees broke camp. They are also deep in bullpen arms in their farm system, with Chase Whitley and the resurgent Dellin Betances both ready for a call-up at any moment. Preseason fan favorite Mark Montgomery is pitching rehab games in the Gulf Coast League and is another potential option if he can regain his arm strength.
4. Can they find a way to navigate a brutal stretch in their schedule?
On Friday, the Yankees start a 15-game stretch where they go to Boston for three games, Texas for four games, come home to play Tampa for three games, then fly out west for two games against the Dodgers and three against the Padres. For their 2013 outlook, this question may have the biggest impact of them all. If they record something in the neighborhood of a 5-10 record during this stretch, it may take them right out of buy mode at the deadline. They will have a brittle Alex Rodriguez and (maybe) Derek Jeter for a majority of these games, but the injuries are a major concern. Unless they do something big over the next two days (highly doubtful), they will continue to rely on their pitching. If that falters in any way, it may be time to turn the calendar to 2014.
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