Yankees Minor League Notes: The Protected

As you probably know by now, the Yankees set their 40-man roster today by protecting several prospects from the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  They could have protected one or two more, but decided to leave open slots, presumably for a Rule 5 selection of their own if they see someone out there who intrigues them.

For those who are wondering, players eligible for the Rule 5 draft are players who are not on a team's 40-man roster and have been in the minor leagues for four or five years, depending on the age when they were actually drafted/signed.  In other words, players drafted in 2014 do not have to be on a team's 40-man roster to be protected from the draft; they are not eligible.  

The Yankees had several players eligible, but the reality is that only a handful are important for the discussion:  OF Tyler Austin, OF Mason Williams, P Branden Pinder, P Danny Burawa, P Mark Montgomery, P Matt Tracy, SS Cito Culver, and P Zach Nuding.

The Yankees decided to protect Austin, Williams, Pinder, and Burawa, while not adding Montgomery, Tracy, Culver, or Nuding to their 40-man roster.

Austin was a no-brainer.  He is a right-handed power hitting outfielder who seemed to come along in the second half of 2014, and continued his hitting ways in Arizona this fall.   Although the Yankees are settled in the outfield right now with Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, and Young, don't count Austin out of the mix - a hot start to his season coupled with a Beltran injury or Young ineffectiveness could have Austin knocking on the door quickly in 2015.

Pinder and Burawa are relief pitchers in a system full of relief pitchers.  One thing about 40-man roster spots and relief pitchers:  Once you get on the 40-man roster, your debut is inevitable if you show any signs of life in the minors.   Pinder and Burawa can be shuffled up and down between New York and Scranton all year in 2015, so unless they are ineffective or injured, I can almost guarantee that both of them will be in pinstripes at some point.

Not long ago, the big debate was whether or not Gary Sanchez or Mason Williams was the top prospect in the entire system.  Neither is anymore, but it is Williams who has taken the biggest step back.  He simply hasn't hit a lick, but has defense and speed on his side.  The Yankees likely protected him because of his pure athleticism, and sometimes players like this can suddenly "click".   I tend to doubt it with Williams at this point, but it is not impossible.

As for those left off the list, Culver is a bust who might get selected because of his defensive ability, but I doubt it.    A couple of years ago, Montgomery looked to have some David Robertson in him - striking out minor league hitters at extreme rates by using a devastating breaking pitch.  But an injury to his shoulder and reduced velocity since coming off of that injury has made him a project, at best.  His devastating slider isn't nearly as effective when he can't throw even 90 MPH anymore.    Tracy is a left-handed pitcher with some talent, but his K/BB ratios have often been pedestrian.  The Yankees have been stockpiling left-handed pitchers this winter (signed one, acquired one), so that likely sealed Tracy's fate (along with Nik Turley).  Nuding may be the most intriguing of them all - a failed prospect as a starter with a big arm that could find some success in the bullpen.  I can see a team drafting him and instantly shifting him to the bullpen in spring training to see if he can stick.  This is not a major loss at this point, because Nuding hasn't even begun the transition to the bullpen yet.  He is still a work in progress.

Overall, no huge news here - the unprotected players, like most unprotected players, are not likely to make an impact (there are always exceptions to this in baseball history, though - Johan Santana was once a Rule 5, for example).  The players they did protect have talent, but only Austin seems to have any potential to be a significant major league player.

Yankees Off-Season Plan, Part 2: The Relievers

Over the past several years, the Yankees have been fantastic at constructing bullpens.  For many of those years, obviously, it was made a little easier by the fact that they didn't have to worry about who was going to come into the game in the 9th inning.  Last year, that changed with Mariano Rivera's retirement, but David Robertson handled the promotion to closer nicely. 

My plan:

The Yankees have no real need to try to be cute here.  If they offer Robertson market value, and he agrees to it, the bullpen will be largely set for 2015.  They can surround him with holdovers Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, and Shawn Kelley to give them the foundation for yet another strong bullpen in 2015.  While David Phelps and Bryan Mitchell may figure into a spring training competition in the rotation, neither will be considered a favorite (especially if everyone else is healthy and they bring in a free agent).   Barring a trade, Phelps would slide into a bullpen role, while Mitchell would likely go back to Triple-A for depth.   This would leave two openings in the bullpen, which could be filled in a few ways.  They could bring back David Huff, allowing them to use the last spot for one of their talented farmhands.   They could go with two farmhands.  They can scour the free agent market for a diamond in the rough for additional depth as well (they have already resigned Andrew Bailey, who essentially did nothing but rehab in 2014).   If left up to me, I would probably hope to bring back Huff cheaply (making him expendable if he implodes) while using a rookie such as Jacob Lindgren to round out the staff.  

This would leave the Yankees with the following:

RHP Robertson

RHP Betances

RHP Warren

RHP Kelley

RHP Phelps

LHP Huff

LHP Lindgren

One name that is certainly missing is Chase Whitley - unless the Yankees decide to trade Phelps or possibly not resign Huff, Whitley will be best served as minor league depth to enter 2015.

Of course, everything does change if Robertson decides to walk.  If that happens, expect the Yankees to at least inquire about free agents such as Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo.  Jason Grilli may also jump onto their radar in this scenario.  I don't consider any of these pitchers to be in Robertson's class, but I am also not naive enough to think that the Yankees are simply going to ignore the market if Robertson bolts.

The future:

The Yankees have built a bit of a minor-league pipeline with relief pitching, and it may finally start to bear some fruit from the left-hand side.    Lindgren, Tyler Webb, and James Pazos are all legitimate left-handed relief prospects.  From the right-hand side, the most ready pitchers include the erratic fireballer Danny Burawa, Nick Rumbelow, and the now-healthy Nick Goody, who may be the best overall relief prospect of them all.   Any of these pitchers can easily find themselves on the major league roster in 2015, with a chance to get to the big club as early as Opening Day.

The bottom line:

The Yankees simply have a knack for finding and developing relief talent.  They find it in Independent Leagues, the free agent scrap heap, through the draft, and small trades.   I don't expect it to be any different going forward; they have the depth and the talent to continue to shut down the opponents.  The big question will remain, however:  How many leads will the offense be able to hand over to them in the first place?   That is what the Yankees need to figure out, as perhaps their biggest strength is something that can't be utilized unless everyone else does their jobs.

Yankees Offseason Plan, Part 1: The Starters

13.

That is the number of starting pitchers the Yankees used in 2014.   Of the five pitchers who began the season in the rotation, only Hiroki Kuroda was able to give the Yankees a full season's worth of work, as CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pindea, and Masahiro Tanaka all went down for significant periods of time due to injury.    Of the 162 games the Yankees played this year, their Opening Day starting five only started 77 of them.

It would have been perfectly understandable if the rotation imploded during the course of the season, but a smart trade for Brandon McCarthy and the somewhat surprising development of Shane Greene helped keep the team in contention for most of the second half of the season.  The Yankees as a team ended up with a 3.75 ERA, placing them in the middle of the pack in the American League.

2015, as it currently stands:

As it stands right now, the rotation is in a state of flux.   Tanaka and Pineda were able to return at the end of 2014, giving the franchise a bit of hope that they will be good to go again in 2015.  Sabathia's knee injuries are now chronic in nature, and Nova will not be ready to go at the beginning of the season.     Their most stable starter (Kuroda) is likely leaning towards retirement, or going back to Japan to finish his career.  On top of that, McCarthy is a free agent.

If 2015 started right now, the Yankees rotation would consist of Tanaka, Pineda, Greene, Sabathia, and swingman David Phelps.    This is obviously not ideal, and it would be surprising if the Yankees actually went into spring training with this as their expected rotation.

My Plan:

If I were the Yankees, the first part of my plan would be to resign McCarthy.  It is hard to think of any pitcher who enhanced their value more than McCarthy did during the course of the season.  After a disastrous start in Arizona (3-10 with a 5.01 ERA), McCarthy came over to the Yankees and instantly became one of the better pitchers in the American League, posting a 2.89 ERA in 90.1 innings.   He also reached 200 innings (exactly) for the first time in his injury-filled career, which is the biggest red flag in a potential deal.   McCarthy's value pretty much went from a pitcher who would have to search around for a 1-year deal to a pitcher who can probably command three for significant money, and get it rather easily.  I stay away from four years - I may consider it  if it is a vesting option based on health.

After that, the Yankees will be staring at free agents Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields.  Shields had a rough postseason and has basically scrapped his once dominant change-up in favor of a cutter.  His postseason performance in 2014 was eye-raising, but shouldn't really keep anyone from signing him - after all, to win the World Series, you first have to make it there - and Shields will help you in that regard.

Since I have a major love for pitchers who miss bats and/or keep walks at a minimum, you may think I would learn towards Scherzer, the type of pitcher who can shut down any offense on his pure stuff alone.  He will command a rich contract, and likely deserves it.  He will likely wait out the market to see which teams are desperate after Lester and Shields make their choices, and if there is one thing we know about the Yankees, we know how desperation and/or panic can lead them to overwhelm a free agent with a contract they cannot resist.

For me, however, I go after Lester.  He has experience in the division and should benefit from Yankee Stadium's kinder dimensions in left field.   Lester also spiked his strikeout rate in 2014 (9.0/9) while keeping his walks down (2.0/9).  He is a true superstar pitcher who has been durable, is left-handed, and knows all about pitching in a demanding market.   He fits the team perfectly - almost as perfectly as CC Sabathia did prior to the 2009 season, but without the pressure of having to lead the rotation like Sabathia did.

There are other alternatives on the market that may intrigue the Yankees.  Francisco Liriano is a second-tier free agent who could interest the team as a lower-cost alternative to the big three.   They supposedly had interest in promising (but oft-injured) Brett Anderson in 2014, and the Rockies released him today.   Other reclamation projects include Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, and Justin Masterson.  I can see the Yankees at least inquiring on these types of pitchers as low-cost/medium reward types.

The farm:

The Yankees system hasn't been producing upper-level talent in recent years, but they do have a little bit of depth in their rotation.   Bryan Mitchell has a few big league appearances under his belt now, and top prospect Luis Severino will be camped in Double-A.   If Severino can develop in the neighborhood of Royals' young stud Yordano Ventura, the Yankees would be ecstatic - Ventura's name gets thrown around because like Severino, he features good stuff in a relatively small package.    If Manny Banuelos can stay healthy, he should also make his way up to the big leagues in 2015.  He will be 24 years old in 2015, with only 446 innings under his belt in seven years (he made his debut at 17 in 2008).  He will forever remain a bit of a wild card, but a wild-card with legitimate talent.

My 2015 Rotation:

Tanaka

Lester

Pineda

McCarthy

Greene/Sabathia

The Yankees would have a good combination of talent and depth, which would be needed given the injury issues scattered throughout that projected rotation.  

As was the case in 2014, the rotation should hold together pretty good, even if there are inevitable injuries.  If they have one of those lucky seasons where hardly of these pitchers gets injured for a significant period of time, they could have one of the better rotations in the game.  But I think that does require spending the money needed to acquire one of the stars on this year's market.