As I said last year, I really don't like lists when it comes to prospects, or (especially) ranking organizations based on their prospects. There are so many variables involved that I find a lot of it to be fruitless. That said, it also is a bit of a fun exercise, so I have decided to do it for a second time (first time was a mid-season ranking last year).
Overall, the system took a beating in 2013. Injuries and ineffectiveness destroyed what was a promising system heading into the season. To be exact, I think the "$189M" mantra was made partially due to the fact that the Yankees felt at least one of their Trenton outfielders would break through and be ready in 2014. It didn't happen - not only did it not happen, none of them even came close to making it a reality for various reasons.
I don't want to sit here and make the claim that there is a lot of talent brewing "down in the lower minors". That is always a bunch of nonsense, as every team in baseball has plenty of high-ceiling talent lurking around in the DSL and GCL. The attrition rate is so extreme that it is almost impossible to know who the gems are going to end up being. The list below has a few of the most promising from the Yankees' collection of lower-level talent, but it is useless to get caught up much in it. These players have to still pass a full-season league test, never mind the ultimate test of Double-A. So, save that talk for someone else. Give me good, young talent that is sitting in the upper minors any day over teenagers who are much more likely to be cut in the next year than make a big leap.
All that said, here we go!
1. Gary Sanchez, C, 21
2013: .253/.324/.412 in 509 PA between Tampa and Trenton
Synopsis: Everyone who follows sports tries to be smart. We will pick a #14 seed to win an NCAA tournament game. We will pick a 20-to-1 shot to win the Kentucky Derby. The same sometimes holds true with ranking prospects. You try to go against the grain; you try to find the players who are better than the "consensus" #1. The odds do say that some other player in the system right now will emerge as a better one than Sanchez is. Good luck finding him. The fact that most now believe that Sanchez will stick behind the plate just adds to his potential and appeal as a long-term major league catcher with the potential to be much better than average at the plate.
2. Mason Williams, CF, 22
2013: .245/.304/.337 in 537 PA between Tampa and Trenton.
Synopsis: It is a good time to get off of the Mason Williams bandwagon. He has attitude problems. He had a rough year in 2013. The Yankees showed how much they valued him by giving two non-power outfielders long term deals, while handing out a shorter term deal to Carlos Beltran. I am not one of those willing to jump off the bandwagon yet. Williams is an above average center fielder with a lot of potential at the plate. Having Williams this high on the list does point to some issues within the organization, but I still truly believe that his talent will eventually shine through. It likely will not be in the Bronx, however, unless Ellsbury or Gardner come down with significant injuries.
3. John Ryan Murphy, C, 22
2013: .269/.347/.426 in 468 PA between Trenton and Scranton
Synopsis: His very brief cup of coffee with the big club does not change his prospect status, and he will likely be back in Scranton to begin 2014. Murphy has risen steadily through the organization, with the Yankees showing a consistent pattern of pushing him up levels every year (2011: Charleston/Tampa; 2012: Tampa/Trenton; 2013: Trenton/Scranton. Do you sense the pattern?) The best part about the aggressive nature in which they have moved Murphy is that he has responded to every challenge they have thrown his way. As much as this author liked the Brian McCann signing, it is also easy to argue that Murphy is within a whisker of being a major-league ready starting catcher. He could be prime trade bait if the right type of player hits the market.
4. Manny Banuelos, P, 23
2013: N/A
Synopsis: It is hard to even believe that Banuelos is only 23 years old, as it appears he has been in the organization forever. And that isn't entirely untrue, as he got his feet wet at the tender age of 17 in 2008. Coming off Tommy John surgery while battling other injuries (none to his shoulder, thankfully), Banuelos has been able to rise quickly through the system despite not throwing all that many innings (369.1). The good news that comes with that is that the Yankees have a nearly major league ready pitcher without much mileage on the arm. The bad news? He hasn't pitched since 2012 (he threw only 24 innings that year), and was having trouble commanding a fastball that was gaining velocity at the time. Pros and cons.
5. Luis Severino, P, 20
2013: 4-2, 2.45 ERA in 44 innings for the GCL/Charleston with a 53/10 K/BB ratio
Synopsis: Some of you may be asking "Luis who?", and that is understandable and Severino is so young with so little experience that he may not have jumped out on many radars. Bottom line, however, is that this kid is packed with a lot of potential, including a fastball that hits the mid-90s and a recently developed change-up that is already above-average in quality. That is the pitch that put him on the map, as he former second pitch (slider) was a lot more inconsistent and has now faded to his third best offering (not a bad thing). If Severino is able to develop that slider (or any other third pitch) into an average quality pitch, the sky is the limit and you will be hearing a lot more about him in 2014 than you could have previously imagined. Should start at Charleston right out of the gate in 2014.
6. Eric Jagielo, 3B, 21
2013: .268/.381/.458 in 226 PA between the GCL and Staten Island
Synopsis: Quick: Name the last college hitter picked by the Yankees that made it to the major leagues. The answer isn't too hard, as his name is Brett Gardner. But the Yankees have picked many college flops in the past. There is a lot of hope surrounding Jagielo, however. He came in with a reputation for having a good approach at the plate, and showed that early on. He displayed the power necessary to be a true third base prospect, and showed enough at the position to make one think he may stick there full-time. The Yankees are in no position to experiment otherwise, as they need infielders in the worst way. The Notre Dame product is the type of prospect I believe the Yankees should challenge, and they may just do that with a trip right to Tampa in 2014.
7. Slade Heathcott, CF, 23
2013: .261/.327/.411 in 444 PA for Trenton
Synopsis: On pure talent alone, Heathcott is the second best prospect in the system right now. The problem? He cannot stay healthy, and there comes a time where you have no choice but to knock him down a few pegs because of that. He has a power/speed combination that not many can match in this organization. It may be a question whether or not he can develop enough power to play a corner, but I think it is possible. I take the eight home runs he hit last year with a grain of salt, as Trenton is notorious for being very rough on left-handed hitters. That obviously would change in Yankee Stadium if he gets there. The bottom line, however, is that he has to prove to everyone he can get on the field and stay there. Otherwise, he is going to fade into the sunset quickly.
8. Aaron Judge, OF, 21
2013: N/A
Synopsis: Judge is a bit of a lottery ticket - but the type of lottery ticket where they automatically give you four numbers, and you just need to guess the final three. (If only the lottery did work that way!) Packed with talent (6'7" with the ability to actually play center field), Judge decided to hold the Yankees hostage after being drafted, and ended up not playing an inning within the organization last year. That makes it a bit tough to rate him, but his raw talent is so immense that you would be doing a disservice to not recognize it. If he lives up to that talent, he can make his way through very quickly.
9. Greg Bird, 1B, 21
2013: .288/.428/.511 in 573 PA with 107 walks for Charleston
Synopsis: There is no doubting the fact that Bird had the finest offensive season of any prospect in the organization in 2013. A few things don't put him higher on this list: He is locked into first base full-time, and he performed at this level for a low-A club while not playing a premium position. Bird is what he is, and it won't change much - though obviously, the Yankees would be ecstatic if the slash line above were to never change. I have read some of the "experts" claim that he is a future first baseman for a mid-market club. That makes no sense to me - he is either major league quality or he isn't. The Yankees will find out soon enough, as it is off to pitcher-friendly Tampa for 2014, and potentially a much bigger test in Trenton later in the season if all goes well.
10. Bryan Mitchell, P, 22
2013: 4-11, 4.71 ERA with 120/58 K/BB ratio over 145.1 innings for Tampa/Trenton (mostly Tampa)
Synopsis: Yikes. Nobody has ever doubted Mitchell's talent. He can throw in the mid-to-upper 90s with a devastating breaking pitch that probably makes any scout drool. But he has been completely unable to put it all together. The thing with pitchers like Mitchell is that things can honestly click at any time, making all of the torture he puts you through worth it in the end. The talent is there for him to zoom up this list, and even put himself in the major league discussion as early as this year, at least as a mid-season bullpen arm. He just needs to find a way to put it all together. I believe I rate him higher than most, because it is just hard not to love the stuff.
Synopsis: Yikes. Nobody has ever doubted Mitchell's talent. He can throw in the mid-to-upper 90s with a devastating breaking pitch that probably makes any scout drool. But he has been completely unable to put it all together. The thing with pitchers like Mitchell is that things can honestly click at any time, making all of the torture he puts you through worth it in the end. The talent is there for him to zoom up this list, and even put himself in the major league discussion as early as this year, at least as a mid-season bullpen arm. He just needs to find a way to put it all together. I believe I rate him higher than most, because it is just hard not to love the stuff.
11. Tyler Austin, OF, 22
2013: .257/.344/.373 in 366 PA for Trenton
Synopsis: Wrist injuries are bad. And Austin has been unable thus far to get over his. It seems very obvious that a bad wrist contributed to a terrible power outage in 2013 (He had a .559 SLG in 2012, to put it in some perspective). If he can get back from this injury and start slugging again, he is obviously much higher than the #11 prospect in the system. He has the pure power to be more than adequate as a corner outfielder, which is what the Yankees would need more than anything given the Ellsbury and Gardner signings. There is a path there for Austin to take - he just needs to get healthy and grab it. Otherwise, he will soon enough be some other system's work in progress (he may end up being that regardless of his health)
12. Ian Clarkin, P, 19
2013: 10.80 ERA in 5 innings in the GCL
Synopsis: The youngest and least experienced of the three early picks the Yankees made in the 2013 draft, Clarkin comes to the Yankees as a left-handed pitcher with a high ceiling. He already throws fastballs in the 91-92 range, touching as high as 94 with a curveball that rates above average and a changeup that is still a work in progress. We won't see much of Clarkin in 2014 in all likelihood, at least in the beginning of the season. He is likely targeted back to the GCL or Staten Island for a short-season stint. The real intrigue will come in 2015. For now, it is about staying healthy and pitching well vs. competition that he should be able to handle.
13. Gosuke Katoh, 2B, 19
2013: .310/.402/.522 in 215 PA in the GCL
Synopsis: This is what happens when a player signs quickly: They jump right into the fire and a lot of experience in a professional league right out of high school. Of course, there were red flags when the Yankees drafted him in the second round (their 4th overall pick) last year: He is a second baseman, and drafting second basemen too high in the draft can come with a collective shrug. After all, you can take talented shortstops who just can't handle the position and move them to second base. You can even try it with catchers who need to be moved. The obvious problem with putting too much stock in Katoh is that we saw what Dante Bichette and others did in the GCL early in their careers; it is very tough to gauge how good a player is based on a season at that level. But based on early returns, you can't help but be a tad optimistic.
14. Abi Avelino, SS, 19
2013: .303/.381/.399 in 224 PA for GCL and Staten Island
Synopsis: The Yankees have a few intriguing enough shortstops in the low minors (the most important phrase in that sentence is "low minors"), and Avelino had the best overall season of the bunch. He stole 28 bases in 32 attempts on top of the slash line above, and for now, the consensus appears to be that he can stick at shortstop full-time going forward. There are a lot of challenges ahead, but the Yankees would be ecstatic if just one of their lower-level shortstops can show signs that they can break through and become legitimate future options. For now, Avelino is simply the most intriguing of the bunch. By June, he may no longer be. That is how it works.
15. Jose Campos, P, 21
2013: 4-2, 3.41 ERA in 87 innings for Charleston with a 77/16 K/BB ratio.
Synopsis: Remember the days when analysts were saying Campos was the true gem in the Montero-Pineda deal? He still may be that, but an injury in 2012 curtailed some of those expectations. Campos came back pretty strong in 2013, but the Yankees severely limited his innings (those 87 innings came in 26 games, 19 of which were starts). Most reports seem to indicate that Campos was not showing off his past velocity, which is understandable but still a bit worrisome until he actually does show it again (if he does). For now, Campos is a bit in prospect limbo - way too early to write off, but has a lot of questions attached to him that need to be answered. 2014 may supply those answers.
16. Ty Hensley, P, 20
2013: N/A
Synopsis: When Hensley was drafted in the first round in 2012, he came with instant question marks - including an abnormality in his shoulder which reduced his signing bonus considerably. After tossing 12 innings in the GCL in 2012, Hensley missed the entire 2013 season due to surgery on both of his hips....at the age of 19. Obviously, that is not a good sign - but there is talent in the right-hander, including a hard fastball, big-time power curve, and a developing change. At 6'5", he has a solid pitcher's frame and has the makeup of a future bulldog, provided he can avoid the injuries. Always easier said than done with any pitching prospect.
17. Miguel Andujar, 3B, 19
2013: .323/.368/.496 in 144 PA for the GCL
Synopsis: Do you want a true sleeper in the organization? Andujar might be your guy. He has all of the tools you would want from any prospect, but as with a lot of players with his age and level of experience, putting them all together will be the real challenge. He has the arm to remain at third base full-time, but needs to work on his footwork. He has the bat speed and power potential to be a true high-average, high-power type of player, but needs to work on plate discipline and pitch recognition. At this point in the rankings, a "toolsy" player like Andujar is a perfect addition. The problem? By this time next year, it can easily be thrown back in my face about how I even ranked a guy as terrible as he is (at his stage of development, anything is possible)
18. Mark Montgomery, P, 23
2013: 3.38 ERA in 40 innings for Scranton with a 49/25 K/BB ratio
Synopsis: It didn't take long to figure out that something was wrong with Montgomery in 2013, as his velocity went down and his effectiveness was nowhere near the levels it was previously. As it turned out, he had a shoulder problem (no surgery) that effectively shut him down for good in August, but the real truth is that he was done well before then. That took a bit of the shine off of Montgomery, who still possesses a 209/60 K/BB ratio over 138 minor league innings. He throws a fastball in the 92-93 range with what has been described as one of the most devastating sliders you will ever see. Montgomery hasn't been mentioned much this spring, and it seems quite likely that the Yankees are going to want to see him perform in Scranton before they make any decisions on his future in the big leagues. No big deal, as bullpens constantly change during the season anyway.
19. Pete O'Brien, C, 23
2013: .291/.350/.544 in 506 PA between Charleston/Tampa with 22 home runs and 96 runs batted in.
Synopsis: Well, one thing is apparent: O'Brien can rake. At least in the lower levels of the minors. But he can also strike out (134 times last year), which doesn't figure to get better as he moves up the chain unless he changes the approach. The Yankees tried him out at third in 2013, but he seems destined to stay behind the plate for now. Since he is more than ready for Trenton, one will have to assume a C/DH timeshare with Gary Sanchez to begin the season. Regardless, O'Brien has the right-handed power teams covet, but the real question is going to become where he actually plays. Wherever that may end up being, he is not likely to be great at it, making his offense that much more important.
20. Rafael DePaula, P, 23
2013: 7-5, 4.29 ERA in 113.1 innings with a 146/53 K/BB ratio for Charleston/Tampa
Synopsis: DePaula is a true tale of two halves, one in Low-A, the other in High-A. In Charleston, he was absolutely fantastic, sporting a 2.94 ERA and a 13.4 K/9 inning ratio. Once promoted to Tampa, he was a disaster, fashioning a 6.06 ERA and 9.2 K/9 inning ratio. The pitcher that looked like he may be fast-tracking suddenly ran into a brick wall, and here we are today trying to figure out what he is. DePaula has a big fastball -perhaps the top overall fastball in the system - but the rest of his stuff is starting to lag behind, which could lead the Yankees to try him in the bullpen in the not-so-distant future. The worst part for DePaula is his advanced age (23), which doesn't come with much experience, due to visa problems and a suspension for lying about his age. At 23, he isn't exactly "done" as a prospect, as pitchers can mature at any time - especially if the Yankees ever feel he is a reliever in the making. Bottom line? 2014 is extremely important - if he flunks at Tampa to start the year, his stock will completely fall off the earth.
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As always, many of the players above can be interchanged - and many players who didn't make the list can easily be ranked anywhere after #10. These players include (but are not limited to) catcher Luis Torrens, pitcher Jose Ramirez (he would have easily made this list, but his spring injury in conjunction with all of his past injuries forced me to keep him off), pitcher Nik Turley, outfielder Zoilo Almonte, pitcher Shane Greene (seemed destined for the bullpen until a solid season in Trenton last year), second baseman Robert Refsnyder (interestingly enough, I don't rank him on the list - but there is a scenario that can be envisioned where he actually makes an appearance in the Bronx this year - big longshot, but not impossible), shortstop Tyler Wade, pitcher Dellin Betances (still a prospect, but I do admit to holding him off the list because I fully expect him to make the big league club - perhaps that is not really fair, but it is my list!), outfielder Ramon Flores (could easily be the first cut from the 40-man if the Yankees need to free up space for a Scott Sizemore or whoever makes the roster out of spring training), etc. I can list 25 players who can easily be on the list - this doesn't mean the Yankees are extremely deep with talent. It is true of any organization that once you get down to spots 15-20 or so, you can literally pick and choose from a lot of guys. It is not an exact science.
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