13.
That is the number of starting pitchers the Yankees used in 2014. Of the five pitchers who began the season in the rotation, only Hiroki Kuroda was able to give the Yankees a full season's worth of work, as CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pindea, and Masahiro Tanaka all went down for significant periods of time due to injury. Of the 162 games the Yankees played this year, their Opening Day starting five only started 77 of them.
It would have been perfectly understandable if the rotation imploded during the course of the season, but a smart trade for Brandon McCarthy and the somewhat surprising development of Shane Greene helped keep the team in contention for most of the second half of the season. The Yankees as a team ended up with a 3.75 ERA, placing them in the middle of the pack in the American League.
2015, as it currently stands:
As it stands right now, the rotation is in a state of flux. Tanaka and Pineda were able to return at the end of 2014, giving the franchise a bit of hope that they will be good to go again in 2015. Sabathia's knee injuries are now chronic in nature, and Nova will not be ready to go at the beginning of the season. Their most stable starter (Kuroda) is likely leaning towards retirement, or going back to Japan to finish his career. On top of that, McCarthy is a free agent.
If 2015 started right now, the Yankees rotation would consist of Tanaka, Pineda, Greene, Sabathia, and swingman David Phelps. This is obviously not ideal, and it would be surprising if the Yankees actually went into spring training with this as their expected rotation.
My Plan:
If I were the Yankees, the first part of my plan would be to resign McCarthy. It is hard to think of any pitcher who enhanced their value more than McCarthy did during the course of the season. After a disastrous start in Arizona (3-10 with a 5.01 ERA), McCarthy came over to the Yankees and instantly became one of the better pitchers in the American League, posting a 2.89 ERA in 90.1 innings. He also reached 200 innings (exactly) for the first time in his injury-filled career, which is the biggest red flag in a potential deal. McCarthy's value pretty much went from a pitcher who would have to search around for a 1-year deal to a pitcher who can probably command three for significant money, and get it rather easily. I stay away from four years - I may consider it if it is a vesting option based on health.
After that, the Yankees will be staring at free agents Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. Shields had a rough postseason and has basically scrapped his once dominant change-up in favor of a cutter. His postseason performance in 2014 was eye-raising, but shouldn't really keep anyone from signing him - after all, to win the World Series, you first have to make it there - and Shields will help you in that regard.
Since I have a major love for pitchers who miss bats and/or keep walks at a minimum, you may think I would learn towards Scherzer, the type of pitcher who can shut down any offense on his pure stuff alone. He will command a rich contract, and likely deserves it. He will likely wait out the market to see which teams are desperate after Lester and Shields make their choices, and if there is one thing we know about the Yankees, we know how desperation and/or panic can lead them to overwhelm a free agent with a contract they cannot resist.
For me, however, I go after Lester. He has experience in the division and should benefit from Yankee Stadium's kinder dimensions in left field. Lester also spiked his strikeout rate in 2014 (9.0/9) while keeping his walks down (2.0/9). He is a true superstar pitcher who has been durable, is left-handed, and knows all about pitching in a demanding market. He fits the team perfectly - almost as perfectly as CC Sabathia did prior to the 2009 season, but without the pressure of having to lead the rotation like Sabathia did.
There are other alternatives on the market that may intrigue the Yankees. Francisco Liriano is a second-tier free agent who could interest the team as a lower-cost alternative to the big three. They supposedly had interest in promising (but oft-injured) Brett Anderson in 2014, and the Rockies released him today. Other reclamation projects include Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, and Justin Masterson. I can see the Yankees at least inquiring on these types of pitchers as low-cost/medium reward types.
The farm:
The Yankees system hasn't been producing upper-level talent in recent years, but they do have a little bit of depth in their rotation. Bryan Mitchell has a few big league appearances under his belt now, and top prospect Luis Severino will be camped in Double-A. If Severino can develop in the neighborhood of Royals' young stud Yordano Ventura, the Yankees would be ecstatic - Ventura's name gets thrown around because like Severino, he features good stuff in a relatively small package. If Manny Banuelos can stay healthy, he should also make his way up to the big leagues in 2015. He will be 24 years old in 2015, with only 446 innings under his belt in seven years (he made his debut at 17 in 2008). He will forever remain a bit of a wild card, but a wild-card with legitimate talent.
My 2015 Rotation:
Tanaka
Lester
Pineda
McCarthy
Greene/Sabathia
The Yankees would have a good combination of talent and depth, which would be needed given the injury issues scattered throughout that projected rotation.
As was the case in 2014, the rotation should hold together pretty good, even if there are inevitable injuries. If they have one of those lucky seasons where hardly of these pitchers gets injured for a significant period of time, they could have one of the better rotations in the game. But I think that does require spending the money needed to acquire one of the stars on this year's market.
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