15-35.
Let us get that out of the way first, as that is likely the first thing that the detractors will bring up when it comes to Nathan Eovaldi. That is his career record with a less than sparkling 4.07 ERA (95 ERA+).
So, now that is out of the way, let us analyze this trade for the Yankees, which is likely their best move this entire winter (other than letting mediocre veteran pitchers sign elsewhere).
There is a lot to like about Eovaldi, who will only be 25 years old on Opening Day. In 2014, he finally started to come into his own a bit, posting a 3.37 FIP (a full run below his actual ERA) while decreasing his walks considerably (from 3.4 in 2013 to 1.9 in 2014). He did that while maintaining his strikeout rate (which, to be fair, has not been his strong suit. But there could also be room for improvement there).
Eovaldi's overall season can be attributed to a lot of bad luck. His BABIP (.323) was the 4th highest number in all of baseball, while his strand rate (65.5%) was the second lowest in all of baseball. It doesn't take rocket science to figure out what happens when those two worlds collide.
So, what does Eovaldi bring to the table stuff wise? We must start with the fastball, which is one of the hardest thrown fastballs in all of baseball. He averaged 95.5 MPH on it, which ranked him 4th in baseball. He compliments his fastball with a 86 MPH slider, 86 MPH "change up" and a 76 MPH curve. His two-seam fastball is his best pitch (according to fangraphs), while his other offerings are still not completely refined. Essentially, the Yankees have acquired a pitcher who is still developing, but has enough major league experience to start passing some judgement on him. If he continues to develop those secondary pitches (and he has a pitching coach who will help him in this regard), the K rate should begin to climb (a Rothschild specialty), which would instantly make Eovaldi one of the best young pitchers in the game.
As for Garrett Jones, the Yankees have acquired a needed right-handed bench power bat who can be used as insurance if there is an injury to Teixiera or Beltran. But perhaps the biggest thing Jones can offer is that of a capable right-handed designated hitter once Alex Rodriguez proves to the world he simply cannot play anymore. Jones will be a free agent after the 2015 season, so he is not a long-term piece to the puzzle. In the short term, however, he does fill a void.
The Yankees also added power arm Domingo German in the deal. The #6 prospect in the Marlins system, German throws a 97 MPH fastball. He pitched in Low-A Greensboro (equivalent to Charleston in the Yankees organization) at the age of 21 last season, compiling a 2.48 ERA and 113/25 K/BB ratio over 123.1 innings. The innings were a significant bump over his 2013 total, so that is something to watch. But he instantly becomes one of the Yankees better pitching prospects - arguably only trailing Luis Severino in that spot.
The move also allows the Yankees to do something fans have been clamoring for: Opening up a spot on the roster for a rookie second baseman, whether it be Robert Refsnyder or Jose Pirela. The Yankees are highly likely to bring in a veteran to compete for the job, but as of now, the feeling seems to be that they want Refsnyder to come into spring training and win the job outright with Pirela as the backup option. Refsnyder is the Yankees most advanced upper level prospect, and he should be ready for a big league job in 2015. Whether that happens out of camp or not is still to be determined, but the fact that the Yankees are seemingly going to give him a legitimate chance is an exciting thing to think about.
As for what they gave up: Martin Prado is a superb super-utility player, but not an irreplaceable player. (Amazing how Brian Cashman works, isn't it? One second, he is talked about as the third baseman for 2015 - the next, they sign Headley and ship Prado out the door). The Yankees will miss the Prado that excelled in his brief stay after being acquired in 2014 - they won't miss the statistics he compiled PRIOR to that trade, however. Overall, they lose veteran depth, which stings - but if it means playing time opportunities for someone younger, I am all for it.
David Phelps has done a good job as a "tweener" over the past several seasons for the franchise, mixing in solid work from both the rotation and the bullpen. But if you get an opportunity to acquire a pitcher who is younger, has a lot more upside, AND is a no-doubt-about-it starter right now, you do it in a heartbeat. Phelps did a lot to enhance his trade value through the years - there was a time when many doubted just how much of a major league pitcher he could be, despite strong minor league work.
Overall, the Yankees gave up a veteran utility player and a pitcher who has an injury history with his elbow for a young starter, a strong prospect, and a useful bench player who should provide them some power. The Yankees have essentially swapped out Shane Greene in their rotation for Eovaldi, which is an upgrade, while acquiring their likely starting shortstop in 2015. On top of that, they can hope that German can stay healthy and become the prospect Jose Campos was supposed to be prior to injury.
My initial thought is to give this trade a big fat "A" - and nothing I have read over the past several minutes has changed my mind on that. The Yankees became a more exciting team today - provided they don't go out and trade for a mediocre second baseman now.
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