There are many times when I see a Yankees' move that I go with my first reaction. My first reaction to the Brian McCann signing was "Yay!" My first reaction to the Jacoby Ellsbury signing was "What are they doing?"
Today, I am actually doing something different - as I am, for the first time in a long time, not going with my initial reaction in my analysis.
My first thought when I saw the Gregorious (can't wait to see what the Bleacher Creatures come up with) for Shane Greene trade was "This makes no sense! Time to go to the Yankees offices and bash down Brian Cashman's door!"
However, I think I was wrong about that.
There aren't many deeper black holes in baseball than the 2015 SS position for the New York Yankees. They just lost a Hall of Famer. Their best prospects at the position are at least three years away, if they ever come at all. The list of free agents is less than inspiring. There simply was nothing obvious when it came to who was going to play the position in 2015. Everyone was flawed - and not spending a multi-year deal on a flawed player like Jed Lowrie is perfectly acceptable.
So they decided to go the trade route, dealing last year's big surprise starting pitcher (Greene) for a shortstop with less than inspiring offensive skills but a solid defensive reputation (Gregorious).
When you saw Greene pitch in 2014, it was hard to not be impressed. He mixed in a hard sinking fastball with a solid breaking pitch to produce results that nobody in their right mind expected. After the 2012 season, when Greene compiled a 5.22 ERA in High-A ball as a 23-year old, it appeared that his only ceiling would be that of a middle reliever. However, something changed in 2013. Greene suddenly started to walk less hitters (BB/9 went from 5.1 all the way down to 1.7), his strikeout rate remained strong, and he suddenly went from a nothing prospect to a fringe starting prospect, which is actually quite remarkable. We all saw what happened in 2014 - after a slow start due to being jerked around between Triple-A and the major leagues without actually pitching, Greene came on like gangbusters - helping save the rotation after the injuries to Tanaka, Pineda, and Sabathia crippled the staff.
So why am I changing my mind slightly about this trade? It is all about supply and demand. Not long ago, Greene would have been treated like gold, because he was rare. A relatively young pitcher who was cost-controlled with big league success on his resume. But that is no longer the case. Nowadays, pitching can be found - maybe not as cheaply as Greene would be, but it can be found. The market is still littered with several capable starting pitchers, and the Yankees will likely sign one or two or three of them before all is said and done.
But shortstops? Try finding a 24-year old shortstop with any kind of talent for a projected #4 or #5 starting pitcher. It is almost impossible to do so. The Yankees were not going to fix any problems with their offense through the SS position - that kind of player simply was not available, unless you think Stephen Drew was going to bounce back to 2013 levels (and stay healthy while doing so). Drew was nothing more than a short-term, band-aid solution with no real upside to speak of - the Yankees evaluated him for a few months at the end of 2014 and came away unimpressed (which is not surprising)
Gregorious is not flawless. He is a capable bat against right-handed pitching, but is atrocious vs. left-handed pitching, which could force the Yankees to look for a capable right-handed backup IF who can handle shortstop. Given his defensive play, I would hesitate to bench him versus all left-handed pitching, but he shouldn't be out there against good southpaws.
So, yes - at first, I thought this deal was dumb. I thought it was bad - I thought the Yankees had officially gone over the edge.
But now? I am at least more open to what they did - I don't necessarily love it, but I do actually understand it. We should hesitate a bit before we overrate Shane Greene - while keeping it in the back of our minds that Gregorious is also no sure thing. There is a chance that in a few years, everyone will say "What was that trade the Yankees, D'Backs, and Tigers made again? What happened to those guys?"
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