Wednesday, December 4, 2013

How the Ellsbury Signing Affects the Yankees Minor League System

A list of the three top center field prospects in the organization currently, and how the Ellsbury signing potentially affects them:

Slade Heathcott (Double-A Trenton):  The Yankees had extremely high hopes for Heathcott entering the 2013 season, but he struggled a bit out of the gate.  He started the season 13-for-68 (.191) with four extra-base hits.   Eventually, however, Heathcott did turn it around and ended the season on a high note, with 42 hits in 137 at-bats in July and August before being shut down with an injury.  The injury bug has been a problem for Heathcott in the past, and perhaps he will need to be moved off of center field eventually because of it.    A big, healthy 2013 season out of Heathcott, however, probably keeps Jacoby Ellsbury off of the 2014 Yankees.  

Mason Williams (Tampa/Trenton):  Do a search online for "Top Yankees Prospects Entering 2013", and Mason Williams will come up first on many of those lists (not quite as many as Gary Sanchez, but the fact was that there was a legitimate debate)    Fast forward to now, and the debate no longer exists.    However, it is way too soon to discount Williams, who put up a .245/.304/.337 line in 117 games between Tampa and Trenton (mostly Tampa) last year.   Those numbers aren't particularly impressive, obviously - but at this point in time, the feeling is that he can stick in center, and that is where is going to have his most value as he is not likely to develop quite enough power to be your ideal corner.     In the end, Williams is the one most hurt by this signing - and the Yankees are probably very willing to offer him up in a package.  Coming off of his 2013, his value is too low in my opinion to even consider dealing him - but that's not the way the Yankees will likely work this.

Jake Cave (Charleston):    With all of the hype surrounding Greg Bird's astronomical season in Charleston, it is easy to overlook Cave a bit.   But you really shouldn't.  Cave, who had one professional at-bat to his credit (back in 2011) entering 2013, put up an impressive .282/.347/.401 line in Charleston while stealing 18 bases (in 27 tries, so not a great percentage).   Cave only hit two home runs, but also provided 37 doubles, which could be an indicator of future power.  If that power develops, he could conceivably move to a corner, where many pegged him to land in the first place (one of the reasons why you may draft center fielders is because they have the ability to move elsewhere if the need presents itself).    Cave was a 6th round pick out of high school in 2011, and was given a nice signing bonus ($800K).   Oh, and if all else fails, he was an elite high school pitcher. 

All of these players are legitimate major league prospects - but none of them have broken out to date.   From a pure perspective of "Should we sign a free agent, or do we have enough confidence in one of these kids?", I may personally lean towards the free agent - as Heathcott's immense potential is being slowed by nagging injuries.    That said, the Yankees are not completely barren in center field prospects, and a reasonable argument could have been made to keep Gardner in center for another year to see if any of these players blossoms.  If not, well - there are much worse things than giving Gardner a contract extension - one of which is signing Ellsbury in the first place.

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