Projected WAR: Where We Stand

The only systems I have in front of me at the moment are OLIVER and STEAMER.  I don't know if Zips projections have been finalized yet, as Fangraphs does not have them on their player cards (they typically do when the system is ready)

Below is the average WAR between OLIVER and STEAMER.

Players Acquired (Projected WAR)

Carlos Beltran - 2.0 

Brian McCann - 4.3

Jacoby Ellsbury - 3.6

Kelly Johnson - 1.2

Players Lost (Projected WAR)

Robinson Cano - 4.8

Curtis Granderson - 2.3

Phil Hughes - 1.3

So, they have gained a projected 11.1 WAR, while losing a projected 8.4 to date.  Of course, this can be met with a "Duhhhh!", given that we have acquired four and lost three.  Also, mixing a pitcher among the hitters is probably not an ideal way of looking at this.

And, there is the fact that the winter is not over and the Yankees are still looking to add more to their spending spree.  They still need a second baseman, a third baseman, and at least one more starter.  These positions are not likely to be filled from within.   As for players lost, there really isn't anyone else that they will be losing, except those who went into retirement (Pettitte/Rivera)

Of course, projection systems are not guarantees - OLIVER, for example, had McCann at the same projected WAR as Cano.  You have to remember that systems don't know names - they don't put Cano side-by-side with McCann, then decide "Oh, that's Robinson Freakin Cano - let's add an additional 2 WAR to his projection!"  

This is far from an exact science, and I don't want it to be interpreted that way.  It is just merely showing a snapshot of the players earned vs. the players lost.  Obviously, losing a premium second baseman (Cano) puts a lot more stress on the team than losing a player like Granderson - Granderson's production is nearly instantly replaced by Beltran (though they get there in different ways).   Cano's production at his position is not going to be instantly replaced by anybody. It needs to be spread around - the Yankees upgraded significantly a tough position to find offense (catcher), while downgrading significantly at a tough position to find offense (second base). 

In the end, thus far, this has been one of the most interesting offseasons in Yankees history.  And the winter meetings have yet to even start.