The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran to a 3-year, $45M deal tonight, a deal that is probably one year too many. But sometimes I wonder why we still criticize such a thing in today's baseball landscape. It may not be the best way to do business, but free agents are always looking for extra years, and if you aren't willing to give them up, somebody else most likely will.
In the end, whether you sign Beltran for two years or three makes very little difference. There isn't a magical age where he will decline to the point of no longer being productive. It could be 2014, it could be 2016, it could be after that. The odds aren't in his favor to be a great ballplayer for the duration of this deal, but the Yankees already know that.
Beltran is coming off yet another solid season. He hit .296/.339/.491 (128 OPS+) in 600 plate appearances for St. Louis. The 128 OPS+ matched his 2012 number, though it is fair to say he got there in different ways. In 2012, he walked more - in 2013, he relied more on batting average. Obviously, you would rather have the walks over the batting average, but the power was still quite evident and should continue to be a strength in his game. Beltran was once a 30/30 threat every season, and did reach that goal once in his career. He no longer steals bases (only stole 2 in 3 attempts in 2013), so that part of his game is essentially gone.
Defensively, Beltran has slowed through the years, but he has been able to remain durable in St. Louis, playing 296 games the last two seasons. He has been plagued with knee injuries in the past, so the Yankees are probably best served keeping him off of the turf in Toronto and Tampa as much as possible through the duration of this deal.
A switch-hitter, Beltran hit right-handers much better than left-handers in 2013, posting a .871 OPS vs. RHP vs. a .729 number vs. LHP. The number vs. left-handed pitchers isn't bad, and he should be able to help the Yankees lineup vs. southpaws. This is an area of need right now, because the Yankees have been singling out left-handed bats this winter.
This is not to say this is a slam-dunk, no-brainer contract. Even with his recent durability, Beltran is an injury risk. And even though he has remained productive throughout his career, every player eventually declines until they are no longer useful. Beltran is very close to that point. The Yankees are just hoping it doesn't happen in the next few seasons.
As for others on the roster, it depends on how the Yankees wish to play this out. Since they do not have a primary designated hitter, they can rotate the outfielders - using Gardner in left, Ellsbury in right, and Soriano/Beltran in a RF/DH situation (where Derek Jeter will also factor in). If no other moves are made in this area, it could be the end of Ichiro's career in pinstripes. It should definitely put the last nail in the Vernon Wells coffin.
The other avenue the Yankees could explore is Gardner in a trade to help fill other needs on the roster. I am still generally opposed to this idea, because I like the current four outfielder setup. Yes, they can do this and allow Ichiro into the 4-man rotation, but that does weaken the team.
In the end, I doubt anyone would call Cano for McCann, Beltran, and Ellsbury the perfect solution - but the offesason is still not over. Once they add a second baseman and a pitcher or two, things could start looking much better for them.
The Yankees' offseason to date is worthy of its own post. It may seem a bit reckless and random, but I also think there was a "Cano Plan" vs. a "Non-Cano Plan" drawn up - and now they are going with the non-Cano plan. They need to find offense somewhere, and OF/DH offered the best offensive options remaining on the market.
For now, this is a solid thumbs-in-the-middle for me. I don't think signing Beltran was necessary, but I can't fault the move very much either. Looking at the immediate horizon, he should help them get where they want to be in 2014.
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