In 2011, Jacoby Ellsbury had a season that was worthy of an MVP award, playing in 158 games while compiling a .321/.376/.552 (146 OPS+) season. On top of that, he played stellar defense in center field. The home run spike was the most eye-popping statistic of them all, as he hit 32 of them that season. He hasn't reached double digits in any other season in his career.
Expect that to change - at least somewhat. Ellsbury will definitely benefit from the dimensions in Yankee Stadium, and should be able to hit 12-15 home runs going forward, as long as he stays healthy. However, Yankee Stadium also suppresses other extra base hits, meaning that Ellsbury's spike in home runs could correspond with a decline in doubles and triples. In 2013, Yankee Stadium ranked 19th in baseball in doubles output, and 20th in triples, according to ESPN's Park Factors. Fenway Park, in comparison, was second in doubles and 10th in triples. It doesn't take a statistics genius to recognize that a spike in home runs has the potential to override any kind of decline in doubles and triples, but it comes down to just how much of a spike the Yankees will get.
There are a few major risks in signing a player like Ellsbury (30 years old) to a 7-year deal: For one, he relies a lot on speed and defense for his value. Ellsbury is an outstanding basestealer, as evidenced by his 52-for-56 line in 2013. Defensively, he remains one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, tied for 5th in overall center field defense according to Fangraphs. His strength is in his range and speed. Arm wise, we will just say that it may be time to pull out the old Johnny Damon tapes to get ourselves ready for 2014. However, players who rely on these two attributes for a large portion of their value tend to fade relatively quickly. As soon as Ellsbury's legs start to go, he will lose a lot of what makes him a great baseball player at the moment, unless he permanently finds the power that has eluded him in every year except for one. You are not going to find many center fielders historically who were still effective defensively at the position in their late-30s. Even superstars like Andruw Jones lost it, and lost it relatively quickly.
Another risk is Ellsbury's injury history. In 2010, he only played in 18 games due to a rib injury suffered after colliding with Adrian Beltre. He attempted a few futile comebacks that year. In 2012, he suffered an injured shoulder when Reid Brignac (You probably thought you would never see that name again) landed on him after Ellsbury broke up a double play. Obviously, these injuries can be looked at as mere flukes more than a player who is simply prone to injury, but they need to be factored into his future as well. Overall, I am not as concerned by his injuries as I am the type of player he is.
The Yankees of course had other options on the table, but apparently decided they weren't going to come to fruition. Carlos Beltran, supposedly their top target, wanted one year too many. Curtis Granderson, a player who obviously benefits from the ballpark, could be looking at a longer deal than many envisioned this winter.
As for how this impacts the rest of the roster, there are a few players we will need to watch closely. Brett Gardner has played left field in the past, and can easily shift back over there, with Alfonso Soriano taking over in right field. Of course, that is easier said than done, as Soriano has never played a game in right field in his major league career. This would have an impact on Ichiro, Vernon Wells, and young players like Zoilo Almonte. It seems that the writing is on the wall for Wells, though the Yankees apparently love the luxury tax price ($0). Ichiro could slide into a 4th OF role, with Almonte taking residence in Scranton as an insurance policy. There could also be trades on the horizon that we just don't know about yet. The Yankees won't be able to deal Wells, but Ichiro could bring back something. Gardner would bring back an even bigger haul, but then you are again looking for another starting outfielder.
The other major impact of course is Robinson Cano. The Yankees seemingly do not have unlimited funds this winter, so it seems very difficult to envision them giving a massive amount of money to Cano at this point. That said, I doubt the Yankees would turn him away if he came knocking on the door.
In the end, Ellsbury is likely going to be a star-quality player for 2014 and 2015. Beyond that, I can see major roadblocks. He will not likely be able to handle center field for the duration of the deal, and unless he gets his power back, he will not be ideal at a corner. (Of course, they are shifting Gardner to a corner if he isn't traded). The Yankees may be a fun team to watch in the near-term with these two speedsters in the lineup, but the long-term implications can be much more dicey.
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