Sunday, November 3, 2013

Yankees Winter Outlook: Catcher

There is no way to sugarcoat the current catching situation with the Yankees.  After going years with penciling in the durable Jorge Posada, followed by a few years of penciling in the solid Russell Martin, the Yankees decided to go in a completely different direction in 2013, and it failed miserably.

It started off decently enough:  Francisco Cervelli got off to a hot start, though it only lasted 17 games before he found himself on the disabled list for the rest of the season.  After that, the bulk of the duty fell on career backup Chris Stewart, and as you may imagine, it ended up being a terrible experiment.  Stewart hit .211/.293/.272 in 340 PA in what was one of the worst offensive seasons for a catcher in franchise history (The incomparable Jake Gibbs hit .222/.280/.282 in 871 PA between 1967 and 1968.  If Stewart is given the catching duties again in 2014, he could challenge this rather easily)

This leads us to 2014 - the Yankees are in desperate need for a catcher now.  There isn't much of a scenario that would lead one to think that Stewart will be back as anything more than a non-roster invitee.  Cervelli may still have value, but his injury history is already extensive at the age of 27.  Austin Romine showed a few flashes here and there, but still ended up with an OPS of .551 in 148 PA.   

So, where do the Yankees turn?  Do they try to go with some combination of Cervelli, Romine, and J.R. Murphy?  Murphy made a brief appearance in the majors late in the season, but didn't play nearly enough to get much of a read on him.   

In a blah free agent market this year, there actually are a few good catchers, headlined by Brian McCann, who will turn 30 in February.   Coming off of a rough season in 2012 (.698 OPS; 87 OPS+), McCann returned to his usual offensive ways in 2013, hitting .256/.336/.461 in 402 PA.  McCann is virtually guaranteed to hit 20+ home runs (He has done it in 6 straight seasons and in 8 of his 9 full seasons in the majors), and you would think that is virtually guaranteed in Yankee Stadium.  The problem will be the price - McCann will not come cheaply - you are likely looking at 5+ years for a catcher hitting the age of 30.   This isn't necessarily a death sentence, but it is a bit scary.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the true definition of an offensive catcher.   He had his best overall season in 2013 (.273/.338/.466; 118 OPS+) and it may even get better if you put him in Yankee Stadium.  He has two big issues working against him:  He isn't much of a catcher and, although he is a switch-hitter, he cannot hit vs. LHP.   You may be able to setup a bit of a platoon with Romine, but are we willing to almost completely sacrifice defense to add some pop to the lineup?  He will come cheaper than McCann for that very reason.

You will once again hear the name AJ Pierzynski come up in rumors this year.  He is cheaper than McCann in both years and dollars and is still a fairly productive catcher (.272/.297/.425; 94 OPS+ in 2013).   As you can see, he is not going to take walks, but he does make decent contact and has good power.   The other strike is that he seems to be a very much unlikable guy from afar, but it seems that teammates typically don't mind him so much. 

Carlos Ruiz is oft-injured, is coming off a bad season, and will be 35 years old.   He would be a buy low candidate that won't cost a draft pick, but if you sign him, you better have a good backup plan.  Ruiz had a .688 OPS in 92 games in 2013.

There really aren't any "take a flyer" types of free agents on the market.   Switch-hitter Brayan Pena is probably the best of the "unheralded" bunch, but his skill set is limited.

THE FARM:
As you probably know, the best prospect in the Yankees system happens to be a catcher:  Gary Sanchez got his first taste of Double-A late in 2013, putting up a decent .744 OPS in 23 games.  Overall, he hit .253/.324/.412 in 509 PA in two ballparks that are pitcher-friendly.   Sanchez could conceivably be ready sometime in 2014 if he blossoms next spring, but the Yankees cannot currently go into next season planning on that to happen.   Once a player graduates to the majors, I don't think of them as being on the farm anymore - but J.R. Murphy still has the qualifications of a farmhand.   The Yankees have been aggressive with the 22-year old, and he hasn't disappointed.  In 468 PA between Trenton and Scranton last year, he hit .269/.347/.426.  It may be a bit of a leap to put him square into a competition to win the 2014 job, but the Yankees obviously love him.  The best case scenario is regular at-bats in Scranton until Sanchez knocks on the door.   Murphy may have the athleticism to move around the field a bit, which would obviously increase his value - especially if Sanchez reaches his ceiling.  

Bottom line?  I fully expect the Yankees to aggressively try to upgrade this position heading into 2014.  McCann is probably the most obvious free agent fit for them this offseason (other than Robinson Cano), but he will come at a high price.    It is a Catch-22 type of situation:  You see the obvious need, but beyond the highest priced free agent, it is hard to see a good overall fit.  This may lead the Yankees to overpay for McCann in the end.

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