Heading into the 2013 season, the one area where hardly anyone saw any true weakness was with the starting pitching. CC Sabathia may have declined slightly in 2012, but most attributed that to an injury. Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte were steady middle-of-the-rotation pieces, and it appeared that Phil Hughes may be on a bit of an upswing, coming off of a 16-win season with a 100 ERA+. Add in the competition between Ivan Nova and David Phelps with Adam Warren ready to assume a role on the major league staff, depth was suddenly not an issue. Oh, and of course, there was Michael Pineda looking to make a comeback as a mid-season reinforcement.
Of course, Sabathia ended up having the worst season of his career while Hughes completely imploded. Phelps dealt with his own injury issues, and Pineda remains nothing more than a curiosity, as one has to wonder if he is going to head into Britt Burns territory. Kuroda and Pettitte certainly held up their ends of the bargain, and Nova came back from a trip to the minors looking like a brand new pitcher.
Now, as we head into 2014, the Yankees are loaded with a lot more questions than answers. Pettitte has retired. Kuroda may follow him, or go back to Japan. Hughes will not be back, and we really didn't find out all that much about Phelps, who ended his season with a 4.98 ERA (81 ERA+). Was that due to pitching through an injury, or the league figuring him out a bit?
The only guarantees the Yankees have at the moment heading into next year are Sabathia and Nova. Where are the other starts going to come from?
Free Agents:
The list may be short on overall quality, but it certainly doesn't lack for quantity. A few of the pitchers in the mix of free agents will end up being bargains, but trying to figure out who they are may be an exercise in futility.
Bronson Arroyo may be the most durable pitcher in the game. He has made at least 32 starts in nine straight seasons. Of course, only one of those seasons was stellar (142 ERA+ in 2006 with the Reds). Arroyo is a good pitcher who will make every start. There aren't many teams in baseball who can't use a pitcher like that. However, like most pitchers, he will come at a cost. And, being that he will be 37 next year, one has to wonder just how much of a commitment you should make. For me, it just isn't worth it....Matt Garza has talent. He has been successful in the American League East. He also comes with his share of concerns, as he has made only 42 starts in the last two seasons, covering 259 innings. He missed time in 2012 due to an elbow injury and missed the beginning of 2013 due to a lat injury. Garza will likely command a big deal on the free agent market, and I don't think the Yankees should bother....The Yankees have often been linked to Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, who will be 31 years old in 2014, has been one of baseball's unluckiest pitchers if you look at advanced metrics. His career ERA (4.37) is much higher than his FIP (3.76) and xFIP (3.75). Year-to-year fluctuations in these metrics can, and does, happen. But Nolasco has pretty much consistently underperformed his metrics for years now. At some point, you have to chalk it up to more than just rotten luck....If Phil Hughes was anyone else's free agent, there may be more debate as to whether to sign him as a project. Of course, he is the Yankees' free agent, and he was so bad in 2013 that there is no chance they are even discussing the possibility....In 2010, Scott Kazmir went 9-15 with a 5.94 ERA and 93/79 K/BB ratio over 150 innings. He pitched in one game in 2011, and wasn't heard from again until surfacing with the Indians in 2013, where he put up a 4.04 ERA in 158 innings with a 162/47 K/BB ratio. Never known for his durability (he has qualified for the ERA title twice in his career), Kazmir does possess a bit of youth (30 in 2014) and power from the left-handed side of the hill, two things the Yankees covet. However, my personal opinion is that he is still more likely to fail in 2014 than succeed - his 2013 story is a nice one, but in the end, his ERA+ was still only 93....Ubaldo Jimenez got off to a huge start in 2010 (I believe he was on a 30-win pace for a good portion of the first half) before falling off of a cliff. He never quite rebounded and his destiny appeared to be that of a colossal failure. Fast-forward to 2013: Jimenez put up a 3.30 ERA (114 ERA+) over 182.2 innings with a 194/80 K/BB ratio. That will likely earn him a contract that he probably won't have much of a chance to live up to, and the Yankees don't appear interested.... Tim Hudson has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the course of his career, and he was throwing fairly well for the Braves in 2013 before going down with a gruesome ankle injury. Most appealing to the Yankees? He likely won't command more than 2 years. Least appealing? Yes, he is consistently good - but he doesn't strike anybody out. I would pass...Josh Johnson offers a lot of upside, isn't that always the case? He was terrible whenever he did pitch for the Blue Jays last year, and the odds you will ever get a full season out of him are nearly zero. That said, his 6.20 ERA last year won't likely earn him a huge deal - as a one year rental, you have to at least think about it...Colby Lewis misses bats. But when bats connect, the ball goes over the fence. Sound familiar?.....I agree with those who say Paul Maholm may be a bit underrated. That said, when I think of pitchers like him, I just envision Chase Wright in his Fenway debut....As always, there is a fair share of veteran projects on the market who won't be looking for much: Roy Halladay and Johan Santana are two such pitchers. I could actually envision a scenario where the Yankees may take a chance on Santana, but his injury history has reached the severe category.
Posting:
The biggest fish in the frying pan is Masahiro Tanaka, and for good reason: He is young (25), coming off of a spectacular season in Japan, and the Yankees can get him without completely destroying their luxury tax threshold. As with any foreign pitcher, there will always be risks involved. Once you get past the fact that he isn't Yu Darvish, you may warm up to the type of pitcher he is. His walk rate is strong (though it will likely go up in MLB), his K rate is good enough if he can maintain it, and it appears he has been durable in his Japanese career. 25-year old pitchers with his pedigree just don't hit the market very often, and he is a perfect fit for what the Yankees need: Youth, innings, and talent. Think of him as a major prospect that a Japenese team has already groomed for the Yankees. It is similar to allowing Seattle to develop Pineda before trading for him - let us hope Tanaka would have a different outcome.
The Farm:
One of the most significant developments entering 2014 will be the status of Manny Banuelos, who could have easily made his MLB debut in 2013 if not for injuries. There are a few ways to look at him: On one hand, injuries have prevented him from throwing much in the minor leagues, making him an unknown quantity at this point. On the other hand, if he can just maintain health (big IF), we have a situation where his arm should be fresh for years to come. He is an interesting wild-card....Brett Marshall looked poised to make a push to the big leagues, and he did make it briefly in 2013. But his season in Scranton was not very good (7-10, 5.13 ERA with 120/68 K/BB ratio over 138.2 innings). Depending on what happens with the rest of the staff this winter, he may just get a shot to break camp - but I think another half season in Scranton may do him good...Vidal Nuno completed his fun story by making it to the Yankees in 2013, but an injury ended his season way too shortly. Nuno should compete for a roster spot in 2014, but I would rather him start in Scranton than relieve in New York. He just isn't your prototypical relief pitcher....Jose Ramirez threw well early on in Trenton last year, earning a promotion to Scranton, where he didn't fare quite as well. Injuries limited him to 73.2 innings. He has good stuff - some would even say great stuff - and could find himself heading to the bullpen....Bryan Mitchell is a bit annoying. Every scouting report you read points to his well-above average pitches - yet, he never really shows it consistently in games. That said, he did compile a 1.93 ERA in three late season starts in Trenton. Now, we just need those 18.2 innings to be the true sign of what is to come...Heading into 2013, there was a feeling that Shane Greene was heading to the bullpen at some point. That point never came. Greene had one of the most encouraging seasons of anyone on the hill last year, compiling a 3.38 ERA in 154.1 innings with a solid 137/30 K/BB ratio. The walks used to be his concern, and it seems he may have rectified that. Don't be surprised if he finds his way to New York in 2014, provided he isn't dealt...Nik Turley definitely fits what the Yankees like in a pitcher: He is left-handed. He has enough power to put up a good K rate. He is durable. His 2013 campaign was a bit uneven, but he still ended up with a 3.79 ERA in 145 innings with a 141/76 K/BB ratio. There are still things to iron out here, but Turley has the upside of a true #3 or #4 starter.....Rafael DePaula was flying last season in Charleston, but ultimately had a lot of issues in Tampa, putting up a 6.06 ERA in 49 innings after his promotion. The polish isn't there yet, but if he were to put everything together, he can be a dynamite starter down the road. Easier said than done....Dietrich Enns was turning some heads in 2013 - to the point where the Yankees converted him into a starter during the campaign. He was shut down after 82.2 innings, and I have never really figured out why that happened. In any case, he dominated in Charleston (0.61 ERA) before struggling in Tampa (5.63 ERA). In any case, anytime the Yankees have a left-hander that shows any promise, they are going to jump out at you....The Yankees treated Jose Campos as if he had dynamite attached to his arm that would explode if he dared pitch deep into games. Campos made 19 starts (26 games overall) but only threw 87 innings. The results of those 87 innings were encouraging, however - and I expect the Yankees to let him pitch a bit more in 2014....Other pitchers to potentially watch include Evan Rutckyj, Cesar Vargas, 2012 draftee Ty Hensley (missed 2013), and 2013 draftee Ian Clarkin, who got his feet wet in three late season starts in the GCL (he only threw a total of five innings in those starts)
Bottom Line:
This is an area of great concern right now. If CC Sabathia doesn't bounce back, this franchise in a bit of trouble when it comes to pitching. Sabathia doesn't need to be a big ace. But he also cannot be what he was in 2013. The Yankees acquired Pineda likely with the intent of him slowly, but surely, taking over for the big man as the ace of the staff - it hasn't worked due to injury. Beyond that, the Yankees probably need to sign two free agent starters - with Kuroda being the most obvious choice to fill one of those voids. Ivan Nova will be locked in to begin 2014, which would leave one spot open if all goes according to plan. (Sabathia, Two Free Agents, Nova, XXXXX) That spot may just be given to David Phelps, but the more likely scenario is a competition between Phelps, Warren, Nuno,perhaps Marshall and maybe a free agent project or two. The Yankees really need to hope that at least one of their high ceiling minor league arms bursts through - and Banuelos could be that guy. He has not lost his overall ceiling - but you can't reach that ceiling if you can't get on the field.
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