Sunday, November 10, 2013

Yankees Winter Outlook: Outfield

Heading into the 2013 season, the Yankees seemed to have a good outfield in place.  Curtis Granderson was going to spring training to learn left field, while Brett Gardner was going to (finally) take over in center.  There was a question mark in right field with Ichiro, but most were hoping that his late surge in 2012 would carry over into 2013.   Of course, a freak injury to Granderson put the Yankees in a position where they, for whatever the reason, thought that acquiring Vernon Wells was a good idea.  It turned out to not be such a great idea, as Wells was terrible for most of the season.  His $0 price tag towards the 2014 luxury tax is hardly refreshing, given how bad he is as a player.

Traditionally, right field has been an offensive position for the Yankees, given that their ballpark does not require a stellar right fielder defensively.    Over the past several seasons, right fielders have included O'Neill, Sheffield, Abreu, and Swisher. (We will conveniently forget about the Raul Modesi experiment).  Now, they have a strong defensive player in Ichiro who has lost his ability to hit.  This is simply not ideal - it is nice to have good defense at any position, but for the Yankees, right field needs to be offensive.

Heading into 2014, as it stands right now, they will have Alfonso Soriano in left, Brett Gardner in center, and Ichiro/Wells in right field.    Obviously, I feel comfortable with 2/3 of that outfield, but right field really should be addressed.   Zoilo Almonte started strong when he was called up but faded.  I still hold out hope for him as a productive major leaguer (113 PA tell us nothing), and he could be an option to take over right field if the Yankees wish to give him a chance.  

Free Agents:

The market is littered with free agent options, but none of them are obvious fits beyond their own free agent, Curtis Granderson.   I think Granderson is serious when he says he is considering the qualifying offer, but I also don't think he will take it.  The Yankees will likely have to give him at least 3 years - perhaps with some sort of 4th year option - if they want to secure his services.  Granderson has his warts, but he is also a proven left-handed home run bat in a ballpark that requires left-handed home run bats....Whenever there is a high-priced free agent on the market, the Yankees will find a way to be linked to them.  That is the case with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. On the surface, Choo may seem like a perfect fit - left-handed bat with power and a stellar OBP.  But he is looking for a deal over $100M.  Make no mistake about it:  Choo is a very good player, but I do not see the Yankees going in this direction.  Ellsbury is a strong defense center fielder with superb speed, but most of his OBP is tied into his batting average and he has lost the power he had a few seasons ago.  He is a very dangerous proposition for any team on a long-term deal....Name the last season the Yankees were not linked to Carlos Beltran. Beltran, who has always seemed destined to play for the Yankees at some point in his career, never has and it seems more and more likely he never will.  Beltran was still solid in 2013 (128 OPS+), but he will be 37 in April and no longer steals bases.  A sharp decline is always possible.  I wouldn't mind him for a year - but he has likely earned himself a multi-year deal, and that scares me....Nelson Cruz has power to burn, and I think that would be the case even without the PEDs.   That said, the Yankees already have a better version of Cruz in Alfonso Soriano, and I just don't have much of a desire for loading up the lineup with right-handed power bats.  That is not what the home ballpark has been designed for....David Murphy is certainly not a free agent you think about, but is probably one that should be on the radar.  Murphy cannot hit left-handed pitching, but was solid vs. RHP before 2013 came along.   He can handle the outfield corners and could probably do OK as a left-handed platoon designated hitter.   Given what the Yankees are striving to do, he could be a buy low candidate...

Trade Targets:

There really isn't anyone obvious on the trade market (that we know about) who seems to be all that enticing.  Please don't even bring up Giancarlo Stanton, as I have a better chance at manning the OF for the Yankees than he does in 2014....Matt Kemp makes a boatload of money and is coming off of an injury-plagued season.  Perfect fit, right?....Andre Ethier can still hit, but is due $69M over the next five seasons and is going to be 32 years old in 2014.  Do you even need to ask how that is going to turn out?...

The Farm:

Heading into 2013, the outfield situation looked strong for the Yankees organization.  By the time 2013 ended, we were left with a lot more questions than answers.

Ronnier Mustelier had a hard luck campaign in 2013.  Destined to make the team out of spring training, he injured himself not long before the team was heading north.  When he finally did come back, he didn't do the one thing that put him on the radar in the first place:  Hit.....
One of the most disappointing aspects of the 2013 season was what happened with the Trenton outfield.  For various reasons, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, and Ramon Flores just didn't do anything near what the Yankees expected them to do.  We have to hope that Austin gets over his wrist injury, while also hoping that Heathcott can finally live up to some of his potential while avoiding injuries of his own.  When he was healthy, he wasn't terrible (.261/.327/.411), though he did strikeout 107 times..  Flores has the reputation for an advanced hitting approach, but was dreadful in 2013.....That said, Ben Gamel put himself somewhere on the map with a good campaign between Tampa and Trenton, hitting .267/.342/.387 in 495 PA as a 21-year old. That may not jump out at you, but it is pretty good for a player of his age at these levels.  However, he may never develop home run power and may not be ideally suited for center field.   Yes, like Flores, he may end up with the "tweener" level:  Not an ideal hitter for the corners, but may not quite be good enough to handle center full-time....Taylor Dugas needs to be mentioned, despite a skill-set that isn't exactly ideal.  Dugas is a smallish outfielder with no power potential, but who also continues to hit (.285/.405/.339 in 477 PA between Charleston/Tampa).  This is the type of player who would expect to fail as he moves up the chain, and we shall find out....Jake Cave's first taste of minor league ball (OK, he did have 1 AB in the GCL in 2011) was a solid one.  The Charleston center fielder hit .282/.347/.401 with 37 doubles and 6 triples, which could be an indicator of some future home run power.   He is high on my watch list for 2014 as he tries to conquer Tampa...2013 signees Brandon Thomas and Mike O'Neill were both dreadful in Staten Island.  It was their first taste of minor league ball, so we will give them a minor pass - but as college hitters entering the organization, you did expect more.  Thomas did show off a bit of plate discipline, but also struck out a ton....Of course, at least they played - Aaron Judge was drafted early, waited to sign, and never played in 2013.  That is a major problem....


Bottom Line:

The Yankees can certainly use an upgrade here - especially in right field - and can do that simply by resigning Granderson.  Of course, they may just decide to go with the status quo, which is dangerous.  OK, it isn't just dangerous:  It is ridiculous.  Having a massive black hole on offense in right field at Yankee Stadium is reckless.  The status quo will offer them no advantage over the opposition.  It would be like the Red Sox sticking Juan Pierre in left field full-time; a completely wasted opportunity to take advantage of what your ballpark gives you.


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