Thursday, November 7, 2013

Yankees Winter Outlook: Shortstop

The last time the Yankees had any kind of question mark at shortstop was prior to 1996, when the organization debated between Derek Jeter and Proven Veteran Shortstop, whoever it would be.  Rumors have persisted through the years that the Yankees were discussing a potential trade for Felix Fermin, with Mariano Rivera or Bob Wickman among the targets for the Seattle Mariners.  Imagine that.

Of course, the Yankees stuck with their rookie shortstop and a legend was born.   Let us now fast forward to 2014, where the Yankees now face a bit of a dilemma at the position.

One of the issues the Yankees have is that it is still going to be hard to entice a veteran to come in to play the position.  Derek Jeter will likely be back, and what veteran with any kind of starting value is going to want to wait around to see if Derek can play shortstop or not?  The answer to that question is nobody.   

The farm system doesn't currently offer much hope in the immediate future - so where do they go?  It is a bit of a stretch to once again rely on Eduardo Nunez.  Even if you have faith that he can at least be average offensively, Nunez is showing to be a bit injury-prone.   

Let us take a look at some other potential candidate.

Free Agents:

If reports are accurate, the Yankees supposedly offer Stephen Drew more money than the Red Sox did prior to 2013, but he wanted to be guaranteed more playing time.  Go figure, as Drew would have been the Yankees shortstop for pretty much the entire 2013 season.   Drew ended up hitting .253/.333/.443 (111 OPS+) in 124 games for the Red Sox, making him a valuable offensive shortstop.  The Red Sox have a qualifying offer out for him (worth $14.1M), so if Drew turns that down, it is with the intention that he can get a better deal than that.  In other words, he won't be cheap and may once again worry about potential playing time issues...Towards the end of 2013, the Yankees made a trade for Brendan Ryan, an all-glove, no-bat-at-all type.  Ryan lived up to the no-bat reputation, hitting an abysmal .197/.255/.273 (51 OPS+) in 349 PA for Seattle and the Yankees.  Yes, glove work is important - but that is nearly an impossible bat to carry, even in this age of reduced offensive output at shortstop....Jhonny Peralta will forever have the PED tag label stamped on him.   The 31-year old had a strong offensive campaign in 2013 (119 OPS+) after a terrible 2012 season (84 OPS+).  There are a lot of question marks with Peralta, and I just hope he signs elsewhere before the Yankees get the final word on A-Rod (Peralta has third base experience, and could be a candidate to fill in at third if A-Rod gets a long-term suspension)....

Trade Targets:

There is already a rumor out there that the Rangers may be willing to trade Jurickson Profar, who would be a nice fit for the Yankees.  We will end it there, because there is no obvious match between the Rangers and the Yankees.  I don't think the Yankees actually have anything the Rangers would trade Profar for, to be honest...The White Sox are in full rebuild mode, which puts Alexai Ramirez on the trade market, in all likelihood.    Ramirez has a good glove, and his bat is passable in this day and age.  He adds an element of speed to his game, which gives his offense a bit more of a boost.    He comes with a $9.5M price tag for 2014, and a $10M price tag for 2015. Ramirez is far from spectacular, but he is priced right.  A lot would come down to what the White Sox want in return...

The Farm:

Let us forget about the immediate horizon - Addison Maruszak is the most ready minor league shortstop they have, and he is not someone you are going to use to replace Derek Jeter in the short or long term.   Down in Tampa, you have Cito Culver, a first-round pick who has not yet been able to click on all cylinders in the minors.  He performed well in 16 late-season games for Tampa, but that obviously does not tell us anything yet.  Culver does come with a good glove reputation, and completely gave up on left-handed hitting in 2013.  I still have faith in him for a few reasons:  He will be able to stick at short, he has speed, and has shown signs of good plate discipline.  At a shallow position like shortstop, you have to keep players like Culver on the radar...Down in the very low minors, the Yankees saw very encouraging signs from 18-year old Tyler Wade (.309/.429/.370), 18-year old Abiatal Avelino (.303/.381/.399 between the GCL and Staten Island with 28 steals in 32 attempts), and 17-year old Thairo Estrada (.278/.350/.432 in the GCL).   Every prospect has to start somewhere, but it is hard to get too excited over players excelling at the GCL level.  The Yankees have to just hope that one of them is able to break through going forward.

The Bottom Line:

This is an impossible situation for the Yankees right now, unless they can get lucky and find a player who is both passable and willing to concede the fact that Derek Jeter will have to play at least a part-time role at shortstop.  The only free agent that is very tempting is Drew, but that requires giving the Red Sox a draft pick AND convincing him that he will get the playing time he wants.  Never mind the fact that he will be costly.   Ramirez may be an intriguing trade target, but the White Sox have to view him as one of their best commodities on the market and will price him that way.    It is hard to use a "Let Us Pray" type of strategy, but in the end, the Yankees may have to hope for 90-95 games at the very least at shortstop for Jeter, while filling in the rest with a player who is adequate.  There are probably more trade targets than I mentioned above that I am sure they will explore.  For now, this remains a very confusing and extremely important position for 2014 and beyond.

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