Saturday, November 9, 2013

Yankees Winter Outlook: Third Base

Of all of the positions up in the air for the Yankees in 2014, third base is likely the strangest and most complicated.  The Yankees have to prepare for any scenario when it comes to Alex Rodriguez.  The scenarios run from A-Rod playing the full season all the way down to A-Rod missing the entire season.  Nobody knows at this point which way that will go, and it will be a while before it is all figured out.

We have to do this under the assumption that Rodriguez will miss a significant amount of time in 2014 (Even the lightest penalty (50 games) forces the Yankees to do something about the situation at third.

Whether one wants A-Rod back or not doesn't really matter - the writing is on the wall that if he can play, he will play.

But what if he can't?  Will the Yankees try to use Eduardo Nunez full-time at the position?  Will they attempt to resign Mark Reynolds, who has absolutely no defensive value but has enough hitting ability to warrant some playing time?   I have a feeling the Yankees are going to want to resign Reyonds since he can help at first, third, and designated hitter while providing a power bench bat.       David Adams is another possibility, but his offense was quite miserable in 2013.  This doesn't mean you should completely throw in the towel, but he isn't a young prospect and his approach upon coming up to the Yankees was terrible - after having a reputation for having an advanced offense approach in the minors.

Free Agents:

If I told you that Reynolds may just be the best free agent third baseman on the market, what would you think?  Most likely, you would think the market is terrible.  You would be right about that.  But Reynolds is near, if not at the top, of the list and is among the youngest free agents at the position (30 years old).....  Eric Chavez fits the profile for what the Yankees would want, and can also be passable as a designated hitter.   In 80 games for Arizona last year, Chavez hit .281/.332/.478, which was a slight decline from his productive 2012 season in pinstripes.  Chavez himself will the first to tell you that you cannot count on him for an everyday gig, and it seems that he wants to play in Arizona, and they want him back....The Yankees were one of a few suitors for the services of Michael Young late in the season.  Young was OK offensively in 2013 (.279/.335/.395; 102 OPS+) but doesn't come with much defensive value.  He should be on the radar for what the Yankees wanted out of Youkilis heading into the spring of 2013, but nothing more....Speaking of Youk, he is again on the open market, but the Yankees are not likely to touch him with a 5,000 foot pole.

Trade Targets:

When you think of third base and the trade market, the first name that will keep coming up is Chase Headley. Headley struggled a bit in 2013, but the end results was still good:  .257/.347/.400 (116 OPS+).    He will hit free agency after the 2014 season, which makes him a good get as a one-year rental.  Since they will be trading for him prior to the season, he can be tied to free agent compensation next winter, which is an added bonus.  Even with all that, he will come at a cost, as the Yankees would likely have to include at least one significant prospect to land him....Another player hitting free agency after 2014 is Pablo Sandoval, though the Giants are likely not going to actively look to dump him.    The huge third baseman hit .278/.341/.417 (119 OPS+) over 584 plate appearances.  Sandoval has dealt with nagging injuries, but his season low in plate appearances in 442 (in 2012).   This is just a name to throw out there because I think if the Giants made him available, the Yankees would definitely inquire.  He earns $8.5M in 2014....The most realistic trade option may be David Freese, who may actually be a non-tender candidate in St. Louis if they don't trade him.  Freese's defensive reputation is poor, to say the least, and he is coming off of a down offensive season (.721 OPS; 101 OPS+).  The Yankees could try to secure him rather than let him negotiate with all teams by offering something of middling value to the Cardinals, but remember one thing:  The Cardinals are near the top of best run organizations in all of baseball, and they are value their players appropriately.

The Farm:

The Yankees actually do have some up and coming talent at third base in their system - but the upper minors don't offer too much at the moment, unfortunately.   David Adams had a rough go in his first taste of the majors.  Ronnier Mustelier, if he has any future, is likely more of an outfielder who can play third in a pinch.  Addison Maruszak can play third in addition to shortstop, but his future is likely that of a bench-type player.

Poor Rob Segedin.  Drafted out of Tulane in 2010, Segedin made an impact in 2011 before stalling in 2012.  In 2013, the Yankees moved him back to third base in Trenton (partially due to need; partially due to the fact that Trenton's outfield was full) and he started off the season on fire,with 24 hits in 71 AB (13 for extra bases).  However, he succumbed to a hip injury and missed the rest of the season.  It remains to be seen how he will bounce back going forward, but if he would have stayed hot through the first few months in 2013, he may have found his way all the way up in the Bronx...I was debating where I was going to put Pete O'Brien in my reports, and decided on third base since that is where he ended the season.   O'Brien can flat out mash, hitting .291/.350/.544 in 506 PA between Charleston and Tampa.   He strikes out a lot (134) and doesn't walk often (41).   He can also catch and probably could be thrown into the outfield as well.  He has a chance to be a valuable piece to the future.  Now he just has to prove he can do it in the upper minors....When you read reports about the Yankees system, you will often see Dante Bichette lumped together with Cito Culver. To me, that is a disservice to Culver.   Bichette has been a nightmare since his breakout campaign in the GCL.   In his second year in the Sally League, his numbers actually declined, as he hit .214/.292/.331 with 119 K in 114 games.   There is obviously nothing to sugarcoat here:  Unless something clicks suddenly in 2014, this is a colossal bust....The Yankees had three early picks in the 2013 draft, and used one of them on Eric Jagielo.  He certainly did not disappoint, hitting .266/.376/.451 in 51 games for Staten Island after a brief appearance in the GCL to get his feet wet.    Perhaps most importantly for Jagielo is that he adjusted to the level quickly.  After hitting .267/.388/.360 in July, he put up a .272/.382/.576 August, showing off some of the power many thing he will be able to tap into.  Jagielo has the ability to move quickly, and the Yankees may just challenge him to do so.  Before we get too far ahead of ourselves though, let us see what he does in his first taste of full-season ball in 2014...In 2010, the Yankees signed Christopher Tamarez to a $650,000 signing bonus.    Signed as a shortstop, he spent 2013 (all 32 games!) at third base, hitting .235/.288/.304 as a 19-year old in the GCL.    Not yet a top prospect, and may never be - but someone to just watch closely.

The Bottom Line:

This position is another tricky one because the Yankees have no idea what is going to happen with Alex Rodriguez.   I think they may end up ultimately trading for a cheap alternative (ie, Freese) rather than try to make a big splash with a player like Headley.    As stated at shortstop, there are probably some who feel that Eduardo Nunez should be given another chance - I am increasingly becoming one who doesn't think that is such a great idea.  

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