My Top 20 list before the season began, and how they are faring. Obviously, if I made a new list now, many things would change (Including #2!)
Top 20 Prospects Heading into 2014
1. Gary Sanchez, C, 21
Numbers: .231/.309/.371; 16 walks, 30 strikeouts in 38 games.
Analysis: Sanchez started off well this season, but has run into a brick wall in May, posting a .460 OPS in 77 plate appearances. Slumps of course happen to everyone - and players can't time their slumps and hot streaks based on when an Internet nobody like me decides to analyze them.
Stock: The same. If the Yankees asked teams for starting pitching right now, the first name that would be demanded is still Gary Sanchez. We shouldn't get too worked up yet over a cold month of hitting.
2. Mason Williams, CF, 22
Numbers: .191/.291/.261; 6-for-7 SB; 22 walks, 24 strikeouts.
Analysis: One thing I always like to do is admit when I am wrong. (I once posted to someone that Jose Tabata's swing reminded me of Manny Ramirez - oops). I have always been bullish on Williams, mostly because of the raw ability he possesses. He is still a dynamic center fielder capable of playing the position at a very high level in the big leagues right now. He is stealing bases better, and the walks and strikeouts are actually encouraging enough. But the bottom line is that he has to hit, and has yet to really do so. (Something to note: His BABIP right now is an abysmal .220. That number is remarkable)
Stock: Down considerably. Williams had a chance to really help himself and the Yankees this year. The Yankees have a full outfield at the moment with other prospects lingering around in the minors. A solid start by Williams, given his defensive reputation, could have made him a significant trade chip this summer. There is still time for that, but he has to start playing to his expectations.
3. John Ryan Murphy, C, 22
Analysis: If you have watched the games he has played in (not many), you probably have noticed a different John Ryan Murphy (and I am not just talking about the name). He is driving the ball to all fields, and just seems very comfortable in his surroundings. At this point, it would be a crime to send him back to the minors even if Cervelli were to actually ever be healthy.
Stock: Up. I would be very surprised if scouts following the Yankees have not reported back to their superiors that this would be a good get in any trade.
4. Manny Banuelos, P, 23
Numbers: 4.03 ERA in 22.1 IP with 23/8 K/BB ratio.
Analysis: Banuelos is a work in progress in 2014, coming off of Tommy John surgery. The Yankees have (rightfully so) treated him with kid gloves thus far, making any kind of analysis tough to come by. Recently missed a start due to elbow soreness/fatigue/etc. Hopefully it is just a routine bump in the road for pitchers when they are rehabbing this type of injury. The last thing the Yankees need is for him to need to repeat the procedure. That could be a game-ender, given his complete lack of experience over the last few seasons.
Stock: The same. Right now, his grade is simply an incomplete - his stuff is supposedly as good as it has always been, and that at least is encouraging.
5. Luis Severino, P, 20
Numbers: 1.76 ERA in 41 IP with 43/9 K/BB ratio for Charleston
Analysis: 2.39 ERA in 71.2 IP with 68/9 K/BB ratio. What do those numbers represent? Those are Arodys Viscaino's numbers in Low-A in 2010 for the Braves, when he was 19 years old. Why am I bringing up Viscaino? Because he was the hidden gem when the Yankees traded for Javy Vazquez and Boone Logan. The Braves may have screwed up his career from there, rushing him through the minors into a major league bullpen role, but the similarities are still the same: High ceiling prospect with tantalizing stuff who just needs to prove he belongs.
Stock: Up. Thus far, the performance is matching the hype.
6. Eric Jagielo, 3B, 21
Numbers: .259/.339/.500; 19 walks, 41 strikeouts in 42 games.
Analysis: I am just going to assume that the Yankees are doing cartwheels right now over Jagielo's development, as he has adjusted nicely to skipping a level (Charleston) and getting thrown into a league known to favor pitchers. The level skip wasn't a surprise - as an advanced college hitter who hit well in Staten Island last year, there was no reason to have him start in Low-A. If he continues to hit at this pace, he may just got his shot at Trenton this season. We'll have to wait and see on what happens there.
Stock: Up a bit. Anytime a prospect from the previous year's draft proves instantly that he was worthy of the draft slot, his stock is going to rise. There does remain some hurdles to overcome, but he is on the fast track right now.
7. Slade Heathcott, CF, 23
Analysis: As with Banuelos, it is really tough to judge Heathcott right now, as he just came back from yet another injury. When he is on the field, he is as legitimate as any other outfield prospect in the system - but staying healthy is a significant part of being a baseball player. He isn't worth much to the Yankees or any other team as an oft-injured outfield prospect. I think his skills are probably still thought of highly around baseball, however.
Stock: Down. He must prove he can stay healthy and productive. Being that he is on the 40-man roster and given that we have no idea when Carlos Beltran will be back, there is a chance for him to get to the majors this year. Health has just stripped those types of dreams away.
8. Aaron Judge, OF, 21
Numbers: .306/.415/.422; 26 walks, 37 strikeouts in 42 games.
Analysis: Ever heard of the term "too good for his league"? That just may apply to Judge. Unlike Jagielo, the Yankees did not have Judge skip Charleston - but he also has never played in a short-season league due to taking his sweet old time signing the contract last year. I thought the Yankees would give him 25 games here (or so) just to get himself ready, then instantly promote him to Tampa. I guess I was wrong.
Stock: The same. Judge is hitting very well in a league he is supposed to hit well in.
9. Greg Bird, 1B, 21
Analysis: By far the best offensive player in the system in 2013, Bird injured his back this past spring and missed most of the beginning of the season. When he is on the field, I would challenge you to find anyone else in the organization within a light year of Greg Bird's pure offensive ability. He can take walks and hits for average & power. Defensively, there is supposedly nothing that sticks out at anybody in his ability to play first base, but he still has room for improvement in that area.
Stock: Slightly down. Before you throw tomatoes at my house and write threatening letters to my family, let me explain the only reason why his stock is down a tad: The injuries. The back injury was not random (he has dealt with it since the time he pretty much entered the organization) Is it possible that the worst of his back problems are forever gone? Of course. And if they are, he will fly up there charts very, very quickly.
10. Bryan Mitchell, P, 22
Numbers: 3.28 ERA; 34/10 K/BB ratio in 24.2 innings.
Analysis: There has always been so much to like about Mitchell. He throws very hard, features an electric breaking pitch, and just seemingly has the entire package to be a successful starting pitcher in the majors as early as this year. But there is obviously more to pitching that throwing hard with a good breaking pitch or two, and Mitchell has found that out. He has been able to drop his walk rate below his career average this year, and maybe the results are reflecting to reflect that.
Stock: The same. Mitchell's stuff is tantalizing to anyone who sees it - but there is more to pitching that a few above average pitches. Mitchell still has to learn that aspect of his game; that striking out a bunch of hitters is not enough to be successful at the highest level. I remain optimistic, but he has to start putting the puzzle together soon.
11. Tyler Austin, OF, 22
Numbers: .258/.340/.344 in 106 AB
Analysis: Right-handed outfield power is not something the Yankees have in droves, yet Austin has the ability to change all of that. The problem? He simply hasn't. A lot of it is likely a lingering wrist issue that is hopefully now healing. I would hate to think that all of the power has completely been sapped out. I would rather think that his wrist is still getting stronger, and the power will come back.
Stock: Down. Not only are the Yankees waiting patiently, so are other teams. Nobody is really going to want to trade for him right now, and the Yankees are not likely to trade him based on current value.
12. Ian Clarkin, P, 19
Numbers: 3.66 ERA; 20/4 K/BB ratio in 19.2 innings.
Analysis: Oh, how the Yankees would love to see Clarkin live up to his potential. The 19-year old (doesn't turn 20 until February) features a 91-93 MPH fastball with a sweeping curve that is considered a swing-and-miss pitch. He has also been developing a change, which would be a key to his starting future. Clarkin has good size (6'2", 205) with a little room to fill out more. However, don't automatically assume that filling out more will add even more life to his fastball. That does not always happen. The best part about it, however, is that Clarkin does not need a velocity increase to be legitimate.
Stock: The same. Clarkin still has hardly any experience to speak of, and it will be a while before we get any kind of read on what his future may hold.
13. Gosuke Katoh, 2B, 19
Numbers: .189/.321/.279; 20 walks, 48 strikeouts in 35 games. 10-for-13 stealing bases.
Analysis: I warned myself to stay away from these "GCL Wonders" who put up these huge numbers after getting drafted, only to quickly crash and burn not much longer down the road. The walks are obviously nice, and he is obviously more than capable of getting on base and stealing second. But he isn't likely to develop into a 100-walk type of player, so that batting average must start trending up.
Stock: Down. This level just may not be the right spot for him at the moment, and he may find himself in Staten Island in the next month. A bit of a setback? Of course. But he has time to get himself back on track.
14. Abiatal Avelino, SS, 19
Numbers: .294/.349/.387; 9 walks, 17 strikeouts; 11-for-16 stealing bases.
Analysis: The first thing that needs to be said about Avelino is that there isn't any doubt that he will be able to stick at shortstop, as defense is considered to be his most advanced tool. This is not a knock on his offensive game, however, as Avelino had a strong offensive season in the short-season leagues last year. As for 2014, he has been holding his own in his first taste of a full-season league, and there is still plenty of time to develop his offensive game to the level of his defense. He is currently on the disabled list with a quadriceps injury.
Stock: Up. He hasn't been spectacular offensively this season (stolen base rate way down, for example), but he is holding his own as a teenager in a full-season league.
15. Jose Campos, P, 21
Analysis: There were those who felt that Campos was the "real" catch when the Yankees and Mariners completed the Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda swap, but things have simply not gone Campos' way. He did pitch in 26 games (19 starts) last season, but was on a strict leash after suffering an injury in 2012. Now, in 2014, he is gone for the season due to Tommy John surgery. He is not yet dead as a prospect, but any development time that is lost is significant - he will essentially have lost two years of development time in the last three.
Stock: Sharply down. Campos will likely need to be treated in 2015 the way he was treated in 2013 (very carefully), and may not be allowed to go all out until mid-2015 at the earliest. One of those prospects that isn't flaming out because of performance. He is flaming out because of injuries. Pitchers, I tell ya.
16. Ty Hensley, P, 20
Analysis: After missing the entire 2013 season due to double hip surgery, Hensley still has not thrown a pitch in a live game since 2012, when he appeared in only five games after being drafted. Big on talent (and in stature - 6'4", 220), Hensley will remain a mysterious figure until he actually starts pitching. He is supposedly throwing to some live hitters in extended spring training and should make his debut with Staten Island later this summer.
Stock: The same. Nothing has changed since his hip surgery. He remains a prospect with major upside and very little experience.
17. Miguel Andujar, 3B, 19
Analysis: .228/.288/.369; 11 walks, 31 strikeouts in 41 games
Synopsis: After debuting with a thud in the GCL in 2012 at the age of 17, Andujar came out swinging at the same level last year, hitting .323/.368/.496 in 144 PA to establish himself as a prospect worth watching. Andujar has a lot of bat speed and supposedly has advanced pitch recognition, though it has not yet translated into walks. Andujar is still a bit of a raw prospect and lottery ticket - but one with a load of upside.
Stock: The same. You are dealing with a kid that has many advanced attributes for a player with his age and experience, but is still quite raw in putting it all together in a complete package. We'll see how he adjusts as the season goes along. I don't really have a read on whether or not the Yankees will keep him here or place him in Staten Island next month.
18. Mark Montgomery, P, 23
Numbers: 2.25 ERA; 24/12 K/BB ratio in 20 innings.
Analysis: As is the case often when evaluating minor league talent, the shine has worn off on Montgomery as other relievers (ie, Danny Burawa) have entered the picture. Montgomery had a rough season in 2013 due to injury, and recent reports indicate that he has become a slider-happy reliever with a reduced fastball. Once considered a legitimate closer prospect capable of getting anybody out, Montgomery is much less than that if teams end up not respecting his fastball. As great as his slider is (and it is GREAT), it cannot live on its own in the major leagues.
Stock: Falling rapidly. He isn't on the 40-man, so one shouldn't jump to conclusions based on the Yankees promoting 40-man roster relievers to the big leagues ahead of him. Plus, the Yankees would likely not want him to be a garbage-time reliever like Matt Daley or Alfredo Aceves. That said, the 2012 version of Mark Montgomery is in a major league bullpen now.
19. Pete O'Brien, C, 23
Numbers: .316/.339/.722; 4 walks, 39 strikeouts in 165 PA
Analysis: What is there to say about O'Brien, who has hit a remarkable 17 home runs in 41 games this season? A game that relies so much on raw power is typically the type of game that can run into problems as a player moves up the chain, but pitchers in Double-A have yet to expose any issues in his limited time there (7 HR in 46 PA). The bottom line is that sometimes you have to let your eyes take over for your brain, and begin to realize that you could be dealing with a player with a skill so special (in O'Brien's case, power) that it overshadows the flaws in his game (4 walks and 39 strikeouts?) O'Brien also lacks a true position, though as long as he can catch and play a little bit of the outfield at even a below average level, he will remain useful because of the bat.
Stock: Way up. Right-handed power is at a premium, and O'Brien seemingly has a lot of it to spare. A team that sees him as a player who can stick behind the plate would likely value him pretty high because of that power. But (and here goes my brain again) you need to be a little careful, as his walk/strikeout rate is still on the alarming side.
20. Rafael De Paula, P, 23
Numbers: 2.90 ERA; 50/23 K/BB ratio in 40.1 innings
Analysis: It has been quite a roller coaster for De Paula, who came out smoking in 2013 (2.94 ERA with 96 K in 64.1 innings for Charleston) before getting torched upon his promotion to Tampa (6.06 ERA in 49 IP). Now, he seemingly has regained a bit of his prospect status thanks to a strong start at the same level this season. De Paula has the raw ability to be a legitimate major league option down the road, but there are still plenty of kinks to work out with his mechanics.
Stock: The same. De Paula is pitching well enough here to at least make you feel that his prospect flame is still burning. Double-A will be a true test, and he could get there later this season.
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