Sunday, July 14, 2013

Yankees Note: What is out there to get for Phil Hughes?

First of all, I realize a lot of Yankees fans are down on Phil Hughes, and there are valid reasons for that.   Hughes hasn't lived up to his overwhelming potential, and there are probably many factors that have contributed to that:  Injuries.  Home ballpark.  The lack of a pitch he can use to generate ground balls, etc. etc.   Hughes has experimented with so many different pitch combinations that sometimes you may forget what exactly it is he throws.  The bottom line is that he hasn't been able to find consistency - which doesn't mean he is necessarily a bad pitcher.

We all know his situation:  Free agent at the end of the season.    The Yankees being unlikely to commit big years and dollars to retain him.  The fact that a pitcher at his age is going to likely command a good contract on the open market.   

The Yankees are likely going to give a qualifying offer to Hughes after the season so that they can at least secure a draft pick.  So any trade they make will need to be one they feel has more value than a compensation pick in the draft.

So, what is out there to get?  The Yankees, smartly in my opinion, are likely not interested in a rental-for-rental deal.  They don't want someone else's bad contract in exchange for Hughes; they want a young player they can control for many years to come.

Most of you probably heard the names thrown out there today - let us look at a few, starting with perhaps the most intriguing:

Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks - Talk about fitting the Yankees like a glove.   Davidson is currently at Triple-A, playing his games in the hitter friendly GCL.   But that shouldn't temper the excitement too much.  He supposedly is not the greatest defensive player, but can stick at third.  The reports state that Davidson has power to the opposite field, which is obviously a major consideration for the Yankees.  So, a right-handed hitting third baseman who can hit the ball the other way with power?  Sign me up.  That is, if the Diamondbacks would be willing to deal such a prospect.  They are looking for a pitcher, they are in a wide-open NL West race, and they have Martin Prado signed up for three more years.   Eric Chavez is also playing well this year and would be a fine option to come back again in 2014.    I don't think Prado/Chavez should ever block a big prospect, but there is no reason to think they can't handle the position going forward.   In the end, he would probably be my top target - though there really hasn't been any noise that Arizona is looking to deal him or deal for Hughes.  It does take two to tango.  It should be noted that Towers and Cashman have a relationship, and Towers actually was an assistant under Cashman a few years ago.  Could he be tempted with Hughes + a prospect for Davidson + prospect?

Tyler Moore, 1B/OF, Nationals - Moore doesn't quite fit as easily as Davidson would, and he isn't as young (26 years old).  He came up last year for the Nationals and set the world on fire a bit (10 HR in 171 PA), but has faltered in 2013, even finding himself back in the minors.  He has hit .151/.195/.283 in 113 PA for the Nats, which would fit right in with the Yankees 2013 lineup.   He can handle first base and the outfield corners.  Overall, I am not all that impressed with Moore, and don't think he represents much value.  I think the power is real, and the Yankees can use right-handed pop, but I personally do not get excited about the prospect of acquiring him.  Interesting tidbit:  The Nationals were a bit obsessed with Moore when it came to the draft.  He was drafted by the Nats in the 41st round in 2005, the 33rd round in 2006, and the 16th round in 2008.   Persistence pays off.

Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Angels - Interesting that yesterday I brought up the fact that Pete O'Brien reminds me a bit of Trumbo, and now Trumbo comes up in a trade rumor.   Once again, he is not quite the fit that Davidson is - the Angels attempted to use Trumbo at third in 2012, but ended up playing only eight games there.    That was the end of that.  Trumbo is a bit of a classic slugger:  He hits plenty of home runs, strikes out a ton, doesn't really know what a walk is, and offers very little when it comes to speed.   He is more accomplished at the big leagues than Moore is, and not much older.  I am always a bit skeptical when it comes to a guy like Trumbo - the one-tool power guy becomes useless when that tool dissipates.     He doesn't become a free agent until 2017.   

My perspective:  The Yankees need to be careful not to dump Hughes for a rent-a-bat.  Rent-a-bats can typically be acquired at a much cheaper rate.   Mark Melancon has become a strong reliever in the big leagues, but it still wasn't a terribly high price to pay for Lance Berkman.    The Yankees are right to hold off on dealing Hughes unless they can get back a legitimate piece for the franchise's future.   Davidson would represent that, but I am skeptical the D'Backs would go for it.   But anything can happen - I was also skeptical the Giants would throw Zach Wheeler into the mix for a rental.  Teams with playoff aspirations will do crazy things to put them over the top, and prospects mean little to them when it comes to their 2013 bottom line.

This will be one of the more intriguing stories for the Yankees heading into the deadline.  It isn't often they are dangling major league talent out there this time of year.




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